Albuquerque Real Estate Market Update for January 2019
Feb 11 2019
0:00 Hi Tego Venturi here with the Venturi Realty Group of Keller Williams Realty with Market data for January as the says Albuquerque real estate market trends I’ve got a broken down by Price here so let’s just run and jump right into it I do want to tell you at the end here I’m going to show some data that we don’t normally look at so something kind of unique for consumers and for real estate agents you may not even know what did what these numbers are so it’s a good one to know so let’s let’s take a look here we’re actually right on our website all of this is right on their website so let’s just start here.0:36And we’re going to look at we’re looking at clothes sales right now we’ve got a broken down by price ranges under 2 2 2 4 4 2 6 and 6 and above that’s a different color sheer blue yellow red and green so if you can see closed sales at above 600 is is slow so it’s it’s almost double the previous year we went from 13 to 25.1:05So really big increase are in. Luxury Market however overall it’s it’s pretty much flat it’s even it hasn’t been a whole lot of change really no change from January last year January this year we had a decrease in that under 200 which is no surprise because the supply is much tighter they’re good increase in that middle to do for range and about flat in that 4 to 6 range so let’s jump to the actual number of homes for sales cuz this tells the picture of of the whole you know Supply vs demand thing and you can see it was slower in that 200 and under and it’s down.1:4930% the number of homes on the market in that price range overall were down almost 18% what is that about six hundred or so homes less this year than last year so we do have Thai Supply right now in our Market especially in those lower price ranges let’s look at 1 supply of inventory in this is a number that really gauges Supply vs demand so right now overall were at 2.4 month supply which is which is low.2:24Generally we say you don’t five six months is a balanced Market you know it’s kind of kind of Eve.2:31And I don’t know if I buy that but that’s that’s kind of what I said in the real estate world and as you can see in this lower price range 200 neunder 1.7 month supply right now is very tight you know just about you know all the homes are turning over relatively quickly however.2:50Going to show you a stat here later that the talks about you know not every home sell so we’re going to we’re going to talk about that.2:59In the middle range right around 3 month supply 4 to 6 where at this what is a 4-month supply and then you get up in the real luxury Market 600 and there’s still a lot to choose from which is kind of interesting because if you’re down here you are in a seller’s market and if you’re up here you’re kind of in a buyer’s market so you know it really depends on the price range this is only talking about prices now.3:26Part of town makes a big difference as well to so you know a $500,000 house in the Northeast Heights it’s going to be a little bit different supply-demand then at $500,000 house in let’s let’s just say to watch that for example okay so that that’s a good a good thing couple other.3:45Just pieces of data we look at the clothes sale and you realize you can see we’ve had a 7% 17 to 18 18 to 19 4% increase in the number of home selling so that continues to go up.3:59Price appreciation is is a difficult thing to track however we can look at average price per square foot and how much of that has changed and in I have found at that does not normally track with home price indexes so a percentage wise so if we look at overall 17 to 18 for purse 4.6% increase in the price per square foot to 114 last year.4:27Previous year is this is actually 12 month rolling is what this says we’re looking at and so in this case we’re looking at February through January sell 5.3 month 5.3% increase price per square foot you can see in the higher price at its move very well in this middle-range not quite so much and in lower range it’s moved quite a bit 6% change in price per square foot in this is not pricey preciation but it gives you a basic idea of kind of where things are going and in this case we’re trending in in appreciating.5:04Well it’s appreciate it is what it looks like okay the other piece of data I was going to share I got to get to the right screen here this this one’s interesting I got to move myself so we can see this okay so what we’re looking at here is the number of homes that expire each month this is two years and you can see it’s December obviously December is always the busiest month for expired usually on December 31st it’s a bunch of homes it expire out of the MLS and that’s what this means he’s our homes that were listed for sale they had a listing agreement with some sort of time frame on it which which they always do.5:48Expired meaning of the home did not sell now they may have come back on the market they may have nots come back on the market for just gives me an idea and if we look at this compared to the actual number of homes for sale you can see it’s not an insignificant amount it can be anywhere from 6% and lower months homes expire up to 20% in that December month one thing we did we have seen though which which is kind of interesting in Eminem.6:19Bear with me really look at this if we look at January.6:25January pretty big increase in the number of expired this year vs last year.6:33I can’t tell you why I would expect you late that it has to do with the number of homes in the market Tyler inventory.6:43Some homes coming on the market probably.6:46There’s four five reasons homes don’t sell obviously number one is price you know the seller wants to get a price that they they want to go.6:56They’re not happy with that date they may take it off to let it let expire could be the condition of the home the vocation that have to do with the marketing in the way the home is being marketed to the community so what a different things to to look at when you say OK wide into home sell but the interesting stat wanted to share that.7:17I could just keep going but I won’t lose pretty long video already if we can help you with any of your real estate needs were Venturi Realty Group Keller Williams Realty we’re at 448 8888.
A quick video looking at the housing stat for the first half of January. The Albuquerque Real Estate Market is seeing low supply and steady demand. We have some nice charts here if you want to see more… https://welcomehomeabq.com/albuquerque-real-estate-trends/
Let’s talk about the seasonality of home sales in the Albuquerque area. There have been some conversations recently that we are “slowing down” and from a standpoint of the crazy summer months, that’s true. Yes, it’s slower, but not slow. We normally see sales starting to slow this time of year, however, plenty of properties will sell, even in the slowest months of Jan and Feb. Here are some stats too show the ebb and flow of sales in Albuquerque. This shows the % of closed sales by month over the past three years as well as avg closed sales each month.
Jan 6% 669
Feb 6% 709
Mar 9% 1025
Apr 9% 1050
May 10% 1167
Jun 10% 1242
Jul 10% 1171
Aug 10% 1157
Sep 9% 1059
Oct 8% 995
Nov 7% 857
Dec 8% 968
No April Fools Joke here… One of the first things I do at the beginning of every month is look at the previous month’s market data and today found a very interesting statistic. The number Pending home sales in March hit an all time high for a single month (historic data is back to 2003). The next closest is July 2005. As of today April 1st (there will be a few more over the next few days) 1514 homes went into pending in March 2017. That is a 25.6% increase over the 1205 in March of 16. The most dramatic change is in the $250,000 to $350,000 price range, with a 37.5% increase in pendings over last year.
So what does this mean? It means we have a healthy real estate market which in turn helps our entire local economy. A National Association of Realtors Study shows that for every median priced home sale the Total income derived from a home sale is $53,605. This is not just the people related to the sale like the Realtor, Lender, Inspectors, Title Agent, etc… it’s the furniture stores, restaurants, hotels, and also impacts new home construction. Tego.
I recently read a study done by Nerdwallet titled “Why January Is the Best Time to Buy a Home”. The study found that nationally home prices were 8.45% lower in January and February than in June, July, and August. I wanted to see how this compared to the Albuquerque Real Estate Market since our winter weather is so mild compared to many parts of the country. I have looked at this data in the past however never as thoroughly as I did this time. So… what do the numbers show? On average, Homes in the Greater Albuquerque Area that closed in January, February, and March sold for 4.1% less than homes sold in June, July and August. This suggests that a $200,000 home bought in February would be $208,000 in July. I am not a big fan of trying to time the market and base your home buying decision on this, move when the time is right for you. It’s just interesting data to be aware of. The 2017 housing market in Albuquerque is looking strong. The number of homes on the market for sale is at a historically low number and strong buyer demand are sure to push up prices going into the summer. Not going to say “Buy Now Before It’s Too Late!”, however I will say… the data suggests buying in the Winter will save you vs. buying in the Summer.
The chart below shows the Average Sale Price per Square Foot for Albuquerque. You can see the seasonal ebb and flow. Generally the avg price per square foot % changes tracks with the Home Price Index.
Earlier this month I did a quick update as well as the Q3 numbers. Here is a full Video Market Update Report including the HPI numbers for the 3rd quarter as well as a November 2016 update. Two big things I am watching… Home Price Index, and Supply vs. Demand ratio. The HPI has had a 4.49% increase through the 3rd quarter, largest move in 10 years, a healthy move. It will be interesting to see how Oct, Nov, and Dec come out. At this point it looks like we will end up at 5%+ appreciation for 2016 Y/Y. The Supply is low and if the demand trend continues, this could create some challenges. However, the fact the prices are going up will help some people who have been in the position of wanting to sell but having negative equity. As the negative equity goes away that can help bring more homes on the market.
We just received the latest Home Price Index numbers for Albuquerque and as expected… prices are up. For 2016 we have seen a 4.49% increase in the index through the 3rd quarter. The last time the ABQ housing market has had gains greater than this was 2006. The Albuquerque Home Price Index has averaged 3.9% since 1978.
The takeaway on the market… The number of homes sold continues to increase but at a moderate level. Supply vs. demand continues to be in favor of sellers in the median price ranges. Year over year price appreciation looks to be in the 3%+- range