There are many non-financial benefits of buying your own home. However, today’s headlines seem to be focusing primarily on the financial aspects of homeownership – specifically affordability. Many articles are making the claim that it’s not affordable to buy a home in today’s market, but that isn’t the case.
“Most lenders agree that you should spend no more than 28% of your gross monthly income on a mortgage payment (including principal, interest, taxes and insurance).”
So why is there so much talk about challenges regarding affordability?
It’s Not That Homes Are Unaffordable – It’s That They’re Less Affordable.
Since home prices are rising, it’s true that homes are less affordable than they have been since the housing crash fifteen years ago. Headlines making these claims aren’t incorrect; they just don’t tell the whole story. To paint the full picture, you have to look at how today stacks up with historical data. A closer analysis of affordability going further back in time reveals that homes today are more affordable than any time from 1975 to 2005.
Despite that, the chatter about affordability is pushing some buyers to the sidelines. They don’t feel comfortable knowing someone else got a better deal a year ago.
However, Are Homes Really Less Affordable if We Consider Equity?
In a recent post, Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, offers a different take on the financial components of housing affordability. Kushi proposes we should at least consider the impact equity build-up has on the affordability equation, stating:
“For those trying to buy a home, rapid house price appreciation can be intimidating and makes the purchase more expensive. However, once the home is purchased, appreciation helps build equity in the home, and becomes a benefit rather than a cost. When accounting for the appreciation benefit in our rent versus own analysis, it was cheaper to own in every one of the top 50 markets.”
Let’s look at an example. In the above-mentioned post, Kushi examines the rent versus buy situation in Dallas, Texas. Kushi chose Dallas because home prices there sit near the median of the top 50 markets in the nation.
Kushi first calculates the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home with a 5% down payment and a mortgage rate of 3% (see chart below):Kushi then takes the monthly cost and subtracts the appreciation the home had over the previous twelve months. The average house price in Dallas increased 17.5% in the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year (this is in line with the national pace). That equates to an equity benefit of approximately $3,550 each month if the pace remains the same (see chart below):We can see the equity gained each month was greater than the monthly mortgage payment, resulting in a negative cost to own. The buyer could build their net worth by $1,830 each month – after paying their mortgage.
Kushi then compares the monthly cost of owning to the cost of renting (see chart below):When adding equity build-up into the equation, the cost of renting is $3,140 more expensive than owning. Again, the First American analysis shows that it’s less expensive to own in each of the top 50 markets in the country when including the equity component.
Bottom Line
If you’re on the fence about whether to buy or rent right now, let’s connect so we can determine if the equity increase in our local market should impact your decision.
Home prices: Why Albuquerque’s listings today are in an auction reserve price
(Transcript Snippet): “Tracy:
Beautiful. So Tego, I want to really get to this, this topic that Eddie introduced and its home prices and how forever real estate realtors go in. We look at the market, we look at what the home could sell for. It gets priced buyers, come in and look at it and they say, well, I wonder how much off we could get. I wonder if we could get a few dollars off and let’s make a lower offer and see what the seller will agree to. Now, listing prices are more like a minimum reserve price on an auction. So remember years back, we used to get things on eBay. I know eBay’s still a thing, but we haven’t used it lately, but they have a minimum reserve, a lot of those different things. Or if you go to a live auction, which are really prevalent, where we’re from in Minnesota and Michigan back east Midwest, a lot of auctions. Actually my dad’s a auctioneer and I, I almost could roll it off my tongue, but I can’t pretend to be an auctioneer. So, you know, house prices today are really like a reserve price because 50, some percent of them, according to Lawrence Hoon, the chief
Tego:
Chief economist, chief economist, I couldn’t think of the Economist.
Tracy:
Yeah. He just put out a story and he said, 51% of homes across the country are selling for above list price. And we know from the research you’ve done. Thank you. Go ahead. No, it’s the same. It’s the same. So over half of the homes that are selling right now are selling for above the listed price. So it’s sorta like the list price is a reserve price on an auction. When people are saying how much over do I have to go to get it?
Tego:
And the thing that’s happened over the years, Tracy, we used to always look at one of the stats that we look at is the list price to sell price ratio, what percentage, right? And for the longest time, I mean, we, if we go back to, you know, the slower times of our market, let’s say back in 20 11, 20 12, you know, it was 95, 90 6% of list price or less and understand that’s after there’s maybe been some price reductions right. In, in the last few months where above a hundred percent, which means again, more than 50% of the homes are selling for more than the currently listed price. Now that brings in some challenges, we talked about that with some of our lending partners at our team meeting the other day. But, but your point you’re making is the list. Price is just kind of maybe a starting point. It might be, and it may be not a starting point to go down. It may be a starting point, Right?
Tracy:
So that’s the shift from the old, you know, the past forever in real estate, right in home purchasing is instead of it being well, how much lower can we go to get the house? Now it’s how much above do we have to go? And that’s been a huge shift this summer and it makes everybody uncomfortable.
Tego:
Let’s just be clear on this. So we also said it’s only about 50% or a little bit more than 50%. So that means the other 50% or 49% or whatever it is, 48% aren’t selling for over list price. So it really takes knowing what’s going on in the market with that particular home in that particular neighborhood and what type of demand there might be for that particular product. Right.
Tracy:
Absolutely. And, and I’ve read that, but the other thing is it might, might make a difference on who you’re working with and how much experience they have and how much communication you have with the listing agent. Because the listing agent should know if you’re having a lot of showings, they should know if there’s a lot of calls coming in saying, Hey, I’m going to be writing an offer. But if your buyer’s agent, you know, takes the time to call the listing agent to find out what’s going on, then you can help strategize and put the right offer together. And maybe you’ll find out, wow, this house doesn’t have other offers. Then this house isn’t going to need a above list, price offer.
Tego:
What you’re saying is when it’s done, right, you’re not going into writing an offer totally blind. Could you have some information
Tracy:
To work? Right? And a lot of times, as a listing agent, you know, there isn’t a phone call from another agent to say, Hey, I’m writing an offer. So it’s not a hundred percent foolproof, but we, we typically have a handle on it.
If you’re trying to decide whether or not to sell your house, this is the time to think seriously about making a move. Fannie Mae’s recent Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) reveals the number of respondents who say it’s a good time to sell is higher now than it was over the past few summers (see graph below). Today, the majority of consumers, 75 percent, say it’s a good time to sell a house.
Why is sellers sentiment up year-over-year?
The higher good time to sell sentiment has to do with today’s market conditions, specifically low housing supply and high buyer demand. In the simplest terms, we don’t have enough houses available for sale to meet buyer demand.
According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), we’re still firmly in a sellers’ market because housing supply is well below a balanced norm (shown in the graph below). Clearly, the scales are tipped in a seller’s favor today. But while housing supply is undeniably low, the right side of the graph shows how the inventory situation is improving little by little each month as more sellers list their homes for sale.
As a seller, that means each month, buyers have more options to pick from. By extension, that means your house may get less buyer attention with time. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, explains it like this:
“More homeowners continue to list homes for sale compared to a year ago… Notably, while new listings continue to lag behind a more ‘normal’ 2019 pace, the gap is shrinking. Even though homes continue to sell quickly thanks to high demand and limited supply, new listings are subtly shifting the balance of market conditions in favor of buyers.”
So, what’s that mean for you?
If you’ve been waiting for the perfect time to sell, there may not be a better chance than right now. Inventory is gradually increasing each month, so selling sooner rather than later will help you maximize your home’s potential.
Bottom Line
If you’re planning to sell your house, 2021 is still the year to do it. The unique mix of low supply and high demand won’t last forever. Let’s connect to discuss what you need to do now to sell your house and take advantage of this sellers’ market.
As summer comes to a close, is it time to think about selling your vacation home? Based on recent data and expert opinions, it’s something you may want to consider. According to research from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), vacation home sales are up 57.2% year-over-year for January-April 2021.
If you’ve taken your last vacation this summer, here are reasons you should consider selling your vacation home this year.
1. Remote work continues to drive demand for vacation homes.
As the report from NAR says, based on continuously evolving work needs, there could be more interest in your second home than you think:
“In 2020, across all nine divisions, the fraction of the workforce that work from home is typically higher in the vacation home counties than in the non-vacation home counties… The opportunity to work from home could further raise the demand for vacation homes in future years.
Recent data shows we’ll likely see a sustained increase in the rate of remote work over the next five years. That means your vacation home could be highly sought after by certain buyers. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, puts it best, saying:
“Vacation homes are a hot commodity at the moment . . . . With many businesses and employers still extending an option to work remotely to workers, vacation housing and second homes will remain a popular choice among buyers.”
2. Selling could allow you to upgrade your vacation spot – or even your day-to-day scenery.
When demand is high, so is buyer competition. When competition is strong, buyers will do everything they can to make their offer on your vacation home as appealing as possible. This can include things like all-cash offers and more. If you sell now, you’ll be able to benefit from high buyer competition and pick the offer with the best possible terms for you. That offer could give you the opportunity to purchase the primary residence of your dreams.
Or, if you find that you’ll continue working from home, you could consider taking up more permanent residence in your vacation home and selling your primary residence instead. While this isn’t a choice everyone can consider, it could be a great option.
No matter what the situation, you don’t have to make the decision on your own. Your trusted real estate advisor can help you determine your best option when you’re ready to sell.
Bottom Line
Buyers remain interested in vacation homes this year for a number of reasons. Now that summer is winding down, it’s time to think about taking advantage of today’s demand for vacation homes. Let’s connect today if you’re ready to give your second home its day in the sun.
Mortgage rates are hovering near record lows, and that’s good news for today’s homebuyers. The graph below shows mortgage rates dating back to 2016 and where today falls by comparison.
Generally speaking, when rates are low, you can afford more home for your money. That’s why experts across the industry agree – today’s low rates present buyers with an incredible opportunity. Here’s what they have to say:
Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, points out the historic nature of today’s rates:
“As the economy works to get back to its pre-pandemic self, and the fight against COVID-19 variants unfolds, owners and buyers continue to benefit from some of the lowest mortgage rates of all-time.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, talks about how rates impact a buyer’s bottom line:
“Mortgage rates are generally the same across the country, so a decline in mortgage rates boosts affordability equally in each market.”
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, also notes the significance of today’s low rates and urges buyers to carefully consider their timing:
“Those who haven’t yet taken advantage of low rates to buy a home or refinance still have the opportunity to do so this summer.”
Hale goes on to say that buyers who don’t act soon could see higher rates in the coming months, negatively impacting their purchasing power:
“We expect mortgage rates to fluctuate near historic lows through the summer before beginning to climb this fall.”
And while mortgage rates are still low today, the data from Freddie Mac indicates rates are fluctuating ever so slightly right now, as they moved up one week before inching slightly back down in their latest release. It’s important to keep in mind the influence rates have on your monthly mortgage payment.
Even small increases can have a big impact on what you pay each month. Trust the experts. Today’s rates give you opportunity and flexibility in what you can afford. Don’t wait on the sidelines and hope for a better rate to come along; the rates we’re seeing today are worth capitalizing on.
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates hover near record lows today, but experts forecast they’ll rise in the coming months. Waiting could prove costly when that happens. Let’s connect today to discuss today’s rates and determine if now’s the time for you to buy.
Kushi then takes the monthly cost and subtracts the appreciation the home had over the previous twelve months. The average house price in Dallas increased 17.5% in the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year (this is in line with the national pace). That equates to an equity benefit of approximately $3,550 each month if the pace remains the same (see chart below):
We can see the equity gained each month was greater than the monthly mortgage payment, resulting in a negative cost to own. The buyer could build their net worth by $1,830 each month – after paying their mortgage.
When adding equity build-up into the equation, the cost of renting is $3,140 more expensive than owning. Again, the First American analysis shows that it’s less expensive to own in each of the top 50 markets in the country when including the equity component.
