I posted a market update video his week for August, and the data shows the housing market is booming. However, a question came up about prices, because there have been a large number of price reductions on listed homes recently. That conversation led me to look at the seasonality of sales prices in the Albuquerque Market and the consistent trend of sale prices pulling back slightly in the fall and winter.
The data shows that we usually see a 2-3% reduction in the price per square foot from the peak in July/August, to the low in January/February. The chart below illustrates the data and is looking at the past ten years average price per square foot for closed residential sales. The data points are 3-month rolling to filter out some of the anomalies, and it illustrates this trend.
What’s the takeaway? Home price appreciation (or depreciation) is not a straight line. We traditionally hear price change quoted as annualized data “4.9% appreciation in 2018” for example. However, the reality is that in 2018, we had a 7.3% gain in price per sqft from Jan to August and a 2.4% decrease from August to December.
So what do you do if you are buying or selling? Don’t overthink it, just be aware of the data. When it’s time make a move, do it.
Albuquerque Real Estate Talk Feb 16 2019
Feb 14 2019
0:00 Good morning morning could we make any more background noise while you’re trying to introduce us there and my goodness kicking the table. Yeah, we’ve been doing this a while now so it’s great really keeps us on top of what’s going on in the real estate market here in the Albuquerque area and. Awesome thanks for that especially with the door.. You need to be very good for Sellers and there’s just not a whole lot of product out there so without your guidance. It’s pretty hard to I move forward or 88888 the hotline in Roseland and chrishell so give us a ring made love to talk to you and help you get connected to the right realtor here. So have a lot of yeah we got a lot lot of stuff going on at a you know it’s that time of year where we kind of came through the winter it’s you know which we always have a low in our Market we do have some seasonality in in home sales in our Market in December January January in particular is usually the slowest month for sales and now we’re all three know what starting to wind up you know starting to wind it up and get going I’ve been talking with a lot of realtors in Albuquerque while Tracy I did it I said it wrong it wrong and I noticed realtor. There’s no real I there’s no a in there it’s real real tour so I’ve been talking a lot of realtors in Albuquerque and just everybody’s expecting that this spring is going to be a pretty pretty much Boomin in the real estate market and it’s going to be in particular from a competitive standpoint right racing thinking about the last few weeks and how busy everyone on our team has been being able to help buyers and sellers with their real estate needs always got to stop for that and. You got a lot to get ahold of the week right absolutely. Lincoln always that we want to send you to careers real estate to the best mentors in the business right there with their all our team that they have and I know that some of the people who talk about. What you guys do and then not should I. How to invest your what are the options then finally new construction custom built and financing will hit all the topic what I want to say you know what it feels like you know last year this time it was starting to feel busy in in in in it turned out that we really had a really busy spring early summer for for home sales got real competitive in certain areas certain price ranges and it’s looking like that’s going to happen again this year maybe even more extreme in in just some numbers to back that up if we look at just the first 10 days of February now we had this year during that 10 day. There were 3007 homes that were active on the market during that. And if we look at it last year same time. There were thirty-five hundred so or 3523 so really you know 500 and whatever that 2018 basically five. Less homes on the market this year vs last year for the same time. So it’s looking like the inventory tightness is going to continue. I know when that you looking for the right types of homes weren’t even breaking that out to you always hit upon the $200,000 and less than 350 and you categorize you know where the buyers and sellers are right people right now that aren’t selling are the 200 less that’s right absolutely and you know we have seen our team recently a lot more people doing the move up buying so they have that house that’s under 200,000 and we’re going to help him sell it and help them move into you know right size for where they’re at in life right now so we’re seeing some of that and we certainly need more homes on the market in that price point even 250 and under pretty pretty desperate. But but let’s get real to in in the sense that there’s you know there were 500 homes that went off the market list last month that didn’t sell them so you know so you got to look at it in a case-by-case basis in just because it’s on the mark and it’s under $200,000 doesn’t mean it’s going to sell right I mean that’s the one part of it the market signs to be a fair price for how it shows and where it is and what the condition is and everything right I want to have to be something to Market once and then what the market wants our nice houses ready to move-in ready to go don’t need a lot of work in nice areas nice neighborhoods you know it until all of those things matter it’s not always just about price and I think sometimes we have these conversations Tracy’s and we’re always thinking about you know so it’s it’s any home under the median price is going to sell immediately in there was actually a story in the journal this week about the housing market in the booming housing market in the course is typically kind of you know. Vivere 3000 foot view of of what’s going on in the housing market in India is very specific cases yes it’s very tight but it’s not everyone but the point is so Tracy if your buyer going into this spring and you’re thinking of buying a home this spring what should people be thinking about let’s put a plan together right let’s let’s meet let’s talk about how the market is let’s talk about your housing needs and what are your must-haves versus like two halves let’s talk about areas what’s important to you have a plan going in and have a financing strategy if you’re not paying cash let’s get the lender involved early let’s get your documents your taxes your bank statements in your your paycheck stubs and everything like that to the lender right away so you become like a cash buyer even though you’re using financing perhaps because when the gems come on the market there’s going to be four or five other people waiting for that Jim as well and we need to have you positioned so that you’re the one that. Shows best non paper and when we negotiate and put put you out there to the other realtor we get to say great things about where you’re at and that you’ve already done all of these things not well once we get a deal we’re going to go ahead and get all our documents to the lender. Going to work can I get that Gem of a house that has been in that you know you have to have a strategy in place you have to have your team and Play Sia Beauty blender in place me have to have a real estate agent in place without their bird-dogging in finding the homes for you right in that you’re ready to go and you have to have a realtor that knows how to write those offers that make you the winner yeah well and it’s it’s about the experience in the ability did you know have the the background of doing quite a few transactions so that you know the ins-and-outs of what’s important right now no absolutely what to do in position yourself so it makes sense for you and make sense for the cellar right we could talk about this a lot longer but let’s not let’s talk about another topic. That that’s been coming up a lot lately and it’s his whole thing about Investors we’ve seen in the last I don’t know what’s a six months I’ve seen at least four of these you know I flip houses get rich kind of seminars come through Albuquerque right in and you know what they’re training people to do is call homeowners look at knock on doors hack record tax records in basically you know cold call people in could be a phone call it could be a robocall it could be a lot of different ways to get people to say hey yeah I’m interested in my soul in the house and in try to get them to negotiate them with directly with and get him to sell the house at a discount right right. Money and maybe bad credit so we’re not going to dwell on that fill the other things and you’re getting those and you’re getting those calls understand there’s resources out there for you right right so we we have probably once a week some some call that says we’re interested we like your neighborhood they’re very unspecific right we like your neighborhood we want to buy a house are you interested this is sort of random but are you interested in selling your house and you know they leave a message and we get letters in the mail all the time about that but there’s there’s the whole seminar type people that are wanting to buy houses but then there’s this whole new wave of what they call I buyer’s offer buyer buyer offer buyers and that’s a whole different thing we don’t have time to go into that into detail here but there is a whole brokerage real. Brokerage model that it’s doing that and it’s thank you notes to CarMax for Real Estate basically they they they buy homes fix him up resell them it’s big in Phoenix it’s big in Houston is he big and a lot of other Marcus it’s not here yet at least the big you know Venture Capital funded companies that are doing that but there’s a lot of people looking to buy houses in a course by my house is at a discount you know our radio ad right that we have on Kiva right we have a radio out and in one of the things you offer yes yes yes. Yep yes exactly will we reach out to Eddie I don’t know. Mine’s like 8 something cuz I get the salad but anyway. Yeah 849 I think so our room we do that we’re not doing it in a vacuum in the sunset here This Is War offer don’t go ask anybody else with that you know what your home is worth we’re going to give you when the show you the data show you what it’s going to cost to sell show you that if you you know get the home marketability in and ready to go for the market and put it on the market.11:29This is what it would be worth so the the form we fill out after we visit the house and talk about what are the circumstances that you want to sell it quick and without any repairs and just as is and then on the document where we actually write down what our offer is we also put on that same document what we believe you could get if you put it on the market and sold it.11:50Regular through the MLS versus a quick sale price so that people can make a good decision the other thing that Tigo and I were talking about the other day is how we could do that for people write somebody gets a new offer we’d be happy to look at it help them understand what the net is to them and what the market might give them if we put it through MLS versus Wholesale in the thing is you know all we can do is give you the data we’re not going to make up numbers were all we do is say look this is what homes are sold for this is what homes like yours is likely to sell for right now that’s what we do so if anybody is thinking of doing that you know looking at one of those offers we’d be happy to talk to you talk about the market give you a real honest market analysis on your property to see where it may be in what it might not in a MLS sale. Lots of ways we can help so.13:08That’s right that’s right. You know I I I. Even what’s happening the short supply.13:28It isn’t what’s been happening you know you got it you got to kind of qualify what we mean by investors and so you got this group of investors that are the buy a cheap fix it up resell it right the flippers if you well there’s that group there’s. The other type of investor is the buy-and-hold you know the buy it rent it you know as a long-term investment and honestly we haven’t seen a lot of that right Tracy I really haven’t we’ve just seen the buy it and maybe paint it put some new carpet few fixture upgrades and resell it but no we aren’t seeing people doing the whole buy-and-hold we’re on our think part of that you know tell me if I’m wrong this is just speculating you will tell me if I’m wrong right oh yes she would like to say that you were right Tracy exactly you know back back in the day. There was there was a lot of people speculating or buying homes to rent them and they figure they rent for a year and even if you know even if they don’t make money on the cash flow on the rent they’re going to be able to sell it for more cuz prices and home for going up so much will ever be so many people got burned back in that that day that we’re not seen as much of it I think that’s a good thing I think it’s a healthy thing for a market however we don’t have as many single-family home rentals is probably the marker could support just because of that and I know several people who have the buy one house of your philosophy because that’s all they can really afford with the share payments but their goal is there investing in homes for rentals over 20 years if you have a goal to buy a house every year you know you can retire off of somebody else paying off the mortgage for you but most of them require 20 to 25% down right still should at least Break Even if you buy the right house and that’s a whole nother discussion because we have a lot of thoughts. What houses to buy and where and what age of the house should be in all of those things so so what are the things I really want to get together through switching topics is careers in real estate we get a lot of calls from people wanting to know about careers in real estate and if you’re interested in getting into real estate just let us know give us a call we’d be happy to sit down over a cup of coffee or something and talk about it if that’s your goal. Are you thinking about that since you been there done that Eddie has we need you in real estate again it’s for for 88888 just give a call and and we can set something up so that would be great too so we’re happy to help. It is so much fun as well you know it’s interesting a Tik Tok I’ve met people either at the association that I’m involved in you know that the Realtor Association here gar as well as at our Keller Williams office in there go I know you have heard you I’ve seen you on TV or her gender. Or whatever it is and it’s like yeah I was going to call you but I just didn’t think you know you would want to you know talk to me I’m like what’s up with that it’s like call us right to sleep we do appreciate the Kiva listeners we do hear from a lot of you and I appreciate that so yeah thank you for that we appreciate you supporting us in and Kiba and Eddie and all that so it just it’s just interesting so we’ll give you that the real all I’m not saying that it’s the reality is it to work it is hard work and it’s very rewarding few updates on the website in the last week here and. How do you know we’ve talked about this before I have that domain name Albuquerque open houses. Com or Albuquerque open house. I know I know it was a hard one it took me a long time to think of what which one do you use I know it’s really long but. Well what I did is actually at that site and I was not a stand-alone say anymore and just redirecting it to our main site welcome home ABQ but I’ve got to I’ve got to open house search page at that opens right up to and you can see all the upcoming open houses in the market see when they are there’s a map that shows up so you can look at them on the map what part of town there are in and what day those open houses are going to be so you can explore to your heart’s content there that actually hit the market late this week it wasn’t coming soon but it’s now active on the market and it’s in Corrales at the very Southend-on-Sea to acres Dobie very New Mexico. Beautiful Adobe on 2 acres for 750000 it also has a guest house that I believe is two-bedroom Guesthouse as I recall and beautiful horse facilities in the most gorgeous Adobe Barn I’ve ever seen oh my gosh you got to look at the photos it’s 347 El Camino Campo in Corrales South and very quick in and out of Corrales and right there by all the horse trails in the other day got a beautiful Chicken Coop to that little pocket of Corrales is one acre minimums this one particular little pocket is 2 acre Manor room so a lot of Elbow Room in this particular neighbor lot of really nice nice homes and it is at the very extreme South end of Corrales so very convenient to the whole Cottonwood corners area it’s a four bedroom main home in two bedroom guest house so if you need multifamily are you need to guest house or just somebody to live in your guest has to take care of all your animals because this particular property has. To irrigated grassy Fields where you can what do they call it rotate your horses animals there and then switch him and let him graze a little bit so we have another one that’s also to acres in Edgewood North Edgewood not ready yet yeah we’re waiting on some photos in the floor plan right now four bedroom three bath on two acres about 2,300 square feet for 350 very nice custom home we also have one for 185 in Los Lunas and Wagon Wheel 3231 wagonwheel it’s about 2,000 square feet so we expect that to go fast we’ve had this there’s not a lot to choose from when he’s. Yeah yeah that’s an it’s about Los Lunas Eddie it’s been hot there’s a lot of people moving in there so. Put Los Lunas on your your show Eddie just the. Oh okay okay got it well but but you know I think you’ve talked about the fact that you know they’re there their crime is not a big issue there as much as some other. I know I know. It certainly is I think.21:00With the other way that they are manned it for the Los Lunas Police Department as well as.21:13Getting approvals planning and zoning and going to rolling out the red carpet for industrial users of course Facebook Maybe. I’ll give you I’ll give you some red meat he ready since it’s not your show but will do anyway you know maybe maybe Amazon a come to Albuquerque now that you know they left a New York is one other house I want to mention and it’s the west side right behind the I guess it’s Lovelace Hospital now it golf course and McMahon it’s on those larger Lots where they’re mostly custom homes in there it’s 245000 on Creek Place Northwest of beautiful single-story with really beautiful outdoor living areas so that one’s also coming soon what what you know of the theme today is wear everywhere right I went to Korea Palace Edgewood Los Lunas Westside you know we we work everywhere so we can talk about the house we have in placitas is just gorgeous yet. Photos of it make me want to go and hang out there so look at that one at 6:50 new on the market this week 4 bedrooms 4 baths like 3800 square feet and I’ve looked at the photos several times right next to La Cueva. Yeah that one Cielo Grande yep one that’s like a block one-block walk to La Cueva high school at 7801 Rio Guadalupe place it’s 450,000 a 3-car garage for bedroom plus a loft over 3,000 square feet beautiful home right there it’s really nice town that area is is been hot for a long time and continues to be active I believe on Thursday or Friday so probably have a busy weekend they’re so. Do all of the homes of the week yeah. How to find out the upcoming. Real real. State, and I we are also a.23:54I just want to just make a point on that whole coming soon thing there are coming soon properties in rmls however those are not available public until it actually is active on the market but you can work with us or realtor to get information about homes coming soon so if you’re in the market looking for something and you’re not finding it out there active you know that one of the websites or whatever reach out to us let us know now we do publish our homes that are coming soon on our website at welcome home abq.com so just to straight they dip down a little bit again this week and that I think the story on interest rates right now is there just flat and that that’s a good thing. Yes.25:00No no never never ever that’s first time ever.25:09Thank you.25:11Yeah.
Albuquerque Real Estate Market Update for January 2019
Feb 11 2019
0:00 Hi Tego Venturi here with the Venturi Realty Group of Keller Williams Realty with Market data for January as the says Albuquerque real estate market trends I’ve got a broken down by Price here so let’s just run and jump right into it I do want to tell you at the end here I’m going to show some data that we don’t normally look at so something kind of unique for consumers and for real estate agents you may not even know what did what these numbers are so it’s a good one to know so let’s let’s take a look here we’re actually right on our website all of this is right on their website so let’s just start here.0:36And we’re going to look at we’re looking at clothes sales right now we’ve got a broken down by price ranges under 2 2 2 4 4 2 6 and 6 and above that’s a different color sheer blue yellow red and green so if you can see closed sales at above 600 is is slow so it’s it’s almost double the previous year we went from 13 to 25.1:05So really big increase are in. Luxury Market however overall it’s it’s pretty much flat it’s even it hasn’t been a whole lot of change really no change from January last year January this year we had a decrease in that under 200 which is no surprise because the supply is much tighter they’re good increase in that middle to do for range and about flat in that 4 to 6 range so let’s jump to the actual number of homes for sales cuz this tells the picture of of the whole you know Supply vs demand thing and you can see it was slower in that 200 and under and it’s down.1:4930% the number of homes on the market in that price range overall were down almost 18% what is that about six hundred or so homes less this year than last year so we do have Thai Supply right now in our Market especially in those lower price ranges let’s look at 1 supply of inventory in this is a number that really gauges Supply vs demand so right now overall were at 2.4 month supply which is which is low.2:24Generally we say you don’t five six months is a balanced Market you know it’s kind of kind of Eve.2:31And I don’t know if I buy that but that’s that’s kind of what I said in the real estate world and as you can see in this lower price range 200 neunder 1.7 month supply right now is very tight you know just about you know all the homes are turning over relatively quickly however.2:50Going to show you a stat here later that the talks about you know not every home sell so we’re going to we’re going to talk about that.2:59In the middle range right around 3 month supply 4 to 6 where at this what is a 4-month supply and then you get up in the real luxury Market 600 and there’s still a lot to choose from which is kind of interesting because if you’re down here you are in a seller’s market and if you’re up here you’re kind of in a buyer’s market so you know it really depends on the price range this is only talking about prices now.3:26Part of town makes a big difference as well to so you know a $500,000 house in the Northeast Heights it’s going to be a little bit different supply-demand then at $500,000 house in let’s let’s just say to watch that for example okay so that that’s a good a good thing couple other.3:45Just pieces of data we look at the clothes sale and you realize you can see we’ve had a 7% 17 to 18 18 to 19 4% increase in the number of home selling so that continues to go up.3:59Price appreciation is is a difficult thing to track however we can look at average price per square foot and how much of that has changed and in I have found at that does not normally track with home price indexes so a percentage wise so if we look at overall 17 to 18 for purse 4.6% increase in the price per square foot to 114 last year.4:27Previous year is this is actually 12 month rolling is what this says we’re looking at and so in this case we’re looking at February through January sell 5.3 month 5.3% increase price per square foot you can see in the higher price at its move very well in this middle-range not quite so much and in lower range it’s moved quite a bit 6% change in price per square foot in this is not pricey preciation but it gives you a basic idea of kind of where things are going and in this case we’re trending in in appreciating.5:04Well it’s appreciate it is what it looks like okay the other piece of data I was going to share I got to get to the right screen here this this one’s interesting I got to move myself so we can see this okay so what we’re looking at here is the number of homes that expire each month this is two years and you can see it’s December obviously December is always the busiest month for expired usually on December 31st it’s a bunch of homes it expire out of the MLS and that’s what this means he’s our homes that were listed for sale they had a listing agreement with some sort of time frame on it which which they always do.5:48Expired meaning of the home did not sell now they may have come back on the market they may have nots come back on the market for just gives me an idea and if we look at this compared to the actual number of homes for sale you can see it’s not an insignificant amount it can be anywhere from 6% and lower months homes expire up to 20% in that December month one thing we did we have seen though which which is kind of interesting in Eminem.6:19Bear with me really look at this if we look at January.6:25January pretty big increase in the number of expired this year vs last year.6:33I can’t tell you why I would expect you late that it has to do with the number of homes in the market Tyler inventory.6:43Some homes coming on the market probably.6:46There’s four five reasons homes don’t sell obviously number one is price you know the seller wants to get a price that they they want to go.6:56They’re not happy with that date they may take it off to let it let expire could be the condition of the home the vocation that have to do with the marketing in the way the home is being marketed to the community so what a different things to to look at when you say OK wide into home sell but the interesting stat wanted to share that.7:17I could just keep going but I won’t lose pretty long video already if we can help you with any of your real estate needs were Venturi Realty Group Keller Williams Realty we’re at 448 8888.
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