Albuquerque’s Real Estate Trends in 2023 and Our Predictions for 2024
Insights from Albuquerque Real Estate Talk 474
As we start 2024 in Albuquerque, we dive into the current trends and future projections around Albuquerque Real Estate. Let’s explore the key points we covered this week.
Albuquerque’s Housing Market Seasonality: Navigating the Peaks and Valleys
The seasonal home price fluctuations in the real estate market may not be known to many but can significantly impact the price you pay or what you sell for. We found that the peak of home prices in Albuquerque typically occurs in July and August. Because of that, we recommend that potential home sellers start preparing their homes well in advance to take advantage of the peak season. As a buyer, purchasing a home before the peak season could be advantageous, as prices normally steadily rise between now (January) and early summer. By buying a property sooner (as in the next 30-45 days), you may avoid competing with more buyers and potentially save on costs.
Seasonal home price trends for our Albuquerque Housing Market. We used price per square foot to eliminate some seasonal home size variations.
The highest and lowest monthly prices for each year are color-coded, Dark green low and Dark Orange High.
Takeaways:
πJul-Aug are the peak Closed price.
πIf selling. The best months to go under contract (57 day avg escrow period) are Apr-May.
πJan is typically the low point of the year.
πThe average annual variation between low and high is 7.4%.
π 2004, 2005, 2020, & 2021 had no seasonal price declines.
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New Down Payment Assistance Program: Opening Doors to Homeownership
We highlighted the launch of the FirstDown Plus program by the New Mexico Mortgage Finance Authority (NMMFA). This program aims to assist individuals in achieving homeownership by providing much-needed support for down payments. Eligibility criteria include income limits and other requirements, and homebuyers on the program can potentially benefit from loan forgiveness after 10 years (be sure to read the fine print on that). If you’re interested in this program, we recommend working with local, knowledgeable lenders that are familiar with the NM Mortgage Finance Authority to navigate the process effectively. Funds are limited so be sure to check on it soon. Call us if you need a Lender recommendation, 505-448-8888.
Selling Your Home: Timing and Preparation Are Key
When selling your home, careful planning and preparation are indispensable for maximizing the home’s appeal to buyers and maximizing the sale price. We find that sellers often underestimate the time required to prepare their home for sale, don’t start working on it soon enough, and end up rushed and stressed. We recommend sellers start the preparation process months in advance, it involves the visible aspects like staging the home, but also maintenance and cleaning tasks, as well as preparing great digital marketing content for the house. Understanding the typical duration for closing (30-60 days) and the time the property spends on the market (57 days on average in 2023), will help sellers make great selling decisions.
Albuquerque Housing Projections for 2024: What To Expect?
Taking a look ahead, we talked about the industry’s collective take on the housing market in 2024 which had projections all over the board, but the consensus is that the US will see slight home price appreciation of 2.5% in 2024. For Albuquerque, the only national entity that projects locally, Zillow, forecasts price appreciation in Albuquerque of 1.7% in 2024 which is actually higher than thier US estimate of 0%.
Forecasting home prices is difficult, to say the least, as there are so many variables, but we believe that locally, the Albuquerque area will likely see an increase in home sales 2024 (grated 2023 had the fewest sales since 2014) and moderate and steady home price appreciation. The supply of homes for sale starts the year equal to the start of 2022 and is still at a very low level and there is no indication that that is going to change dramatically and time soon.Β
We’re committed to helping New Mexico buyers and sellers have the knowledge to make informed real estate decisions and are thrilled to be the go-to source for Market data and Real Estate news in Albuquerquqe. Whether you’re a buyer or seller, or just have questions about Real Estate in Albuquerque, feel free to reach out to us at 505-448-8888 or visit our website, www.welcomehomeabq.com. You can connect with us on the social media platforms for the latest updates and real estate news.
TheΒ Albuquerque real estate marketΒ continues to evolve, and we are here to help you navigate these changes with confidence.
Transcript
Tego Venturi:
Welcome to Albuquerque Realty Estate Talk for January 2024, 1st week of January. Glad to be here talking about real estate, episode 474, Tracy.
Tracy Venturi:
Yeah. Here we are. Starting out 2024 with a good recap of 2023. Right?
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. Well, we did we did some of that last year, and then
Tracy Venturi:
Last week.
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. Last well, it was last year, though.
Tracy Venturi:
That’s true.
Tego Venturi:
Oh, yeah. See, I made a mistake, but it was Realty last year.
Tracy Venturi:
Yeah.
Tego Venturi:
But, anyway, it’s, it’s Tego and Tracy Venturi, the Venturi Group of Real Broker. We come here every week talking about real estate in the Albuquerque market, bringing you news, stats, data, tips, tricks, you name it, on, the real estate market. So love doing it. And, Tracy, what do we have, have this week?
Tracy Venturi:
Sure. So I know that you’re going to do a little bit of a roundup, right, of 2023. Because last week, we just had some preliminary information. I know we’re gonna talk about some tips to getting your home ready to be on the market, Some of the top three things that are important there. Talk about the best month to sell a home, but is, statistically, the highest sale price is every month, during a year. Right?
Tego Venturi:
I I went down the rabbit hole on that one trying to figure out what is the best month to sell your home in the Albuquerque Realty. So we’ll get into that. Yep.
Tracy Venturi:
Yep. And I’m sure we’ll have some other off topic stories. Right?
Tego Venturi:
Of course.
Tracy Venturi:
Yeah.
Tego Venturi:
Of course. Tracy, let’s lead off. And and, if you wanna get a hold of us, again, we’re the Venturi Group of Real Broker, and we’re at 505 448-8888. Happy to help any way we can with your real estate needs. Tracy, MFA, Mortgage Finance Authority, New Mexico Mortgage Finance Authority, just announced a new program. And if you’re if you’re not familiar with the MFA, they are a, entity here in the state that helps people with down payment assistance, different type of housing assistance. But they just launched a new program, and it looks extraordinary.
Tracy Venturi:
They did. And, you know, so they typically the mortgage finance Authority has a down payment assistance program to help with the closing costs and a little bit of down payment, right now, typically, but they’ve added an enhanced One. It’s like a a 3rd lien on the property where they’ll give you more money towards down payment. And Len there’s only certain lenders in the state.
Tego Venturi:
I’m I’m grinning because it used to be called 1st down. Now it’s called 1st down plus.
Tracy Venturi:
Yeah. 1st down plus.
Tego Venturi:
It has a plus.
Tracy Venturi:
So this is a new program. They just put the parameters out this week to how to qualify for it. Only certain lenders in the state Actually do offer the loan program through the mortgage finance authority. So let me know if you’re interested in knowing more, let us know. We Make sure we get you with a lender that actually does these programs. But the, the plus now is extra money to help with down payment, to get more people, into homes that might not otherwise have the money or qualify. So you have to have a minimum credit score. And, this is Money that can only be used for down payment.
Tracy Venturi:
It cannot be used for the closing costs. However, it’s like another loan. So you’ve got the 1st loan, a 2nd loan. This is a third one, and there is some repayment on it. But if you go 10 years and meet certain criteria, they may forgive That money that they’re giving you to get into a home. So it’s a great program. Lenders cannot start, claiming those Funds and putting them aside because there’s limited amounts of funds. The lenders can start, Certain amounts of those funds for a certain person on the 12th of the month.
Tracy Venturi:
So if this is something you’re interested in, get with us right away, and we can see if you qualify And what you might qualify for and help you find that home.
Tego Venturi:
And and and along with that, we will direct you to a lender that’s local, that knows these programs, that understands these programs and can work you through it because it’s not not every single lender is gonna be able to they might offer it, but you really need somebody that understands the ins and outs of working with the mortgage finance authority.
Tracy Venturi:
Right. And a lot of lenders don’t offer it, especially out of state lenders. It’s mostly just local lenders that that work with these down payment assistance programs. So it’s a great one.
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. Yeah. MFA program, give us a shout if, you or you know anybody that’s looking for these kind of down down payment payment assistance programs.
Tracy Venturi:
Just one last thing. On that 1st time home buyer is somebody who hasn’t hasn’t owned a home in 3 years.
Tego Venturi:
Good point.
Tracy Venturi:
You could have owned a home before and still be a first time home buyer. So give us a call.
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. The the yeah. That’s
Tracy Venturi:
Tiga, let’s move on.
Tego Venturi:
Yes.
Tracy Venturi:
2023.
Tego Venturi:
Yes.
Tracy Venturi:
We finished The year. We’re happy to be in 2024. We’re getting some moisture this week, which is great for most parts of the state. We love it. We can use it. So give us a quick roundup of what you know about 2023.
Tego Venturi:
I think the takeaway for 2023 was a housing slowdown. And when I say that, I’m talking about the number of homes sold. Obviously, Tracy, we’ve been talking about it, seeing it all year long in 23, but we’ve got the final numbers that came in. In the Albuquerque area, there were roughly 9,000 homes that sold, 9,000 Realty properties. I take that back. I’m sorry. It’s 8,762.
Tracy Venturi:
So not even.
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. I I had to get I I knew 9 in my head. I had to actually look at the exact data. But, yeah, the but the the thing to take away from that is, if we go back to, the end of last year, it was 11,200, so 22% less from 22. 22 was, 14,000 homes. I said 11,000 less. So, yeah, it was about 14,021, 11,022 and just shy of 9,023. Yep.
Tego Venturi:
So we’ve definitely seen a step down about 20% per year in the number of homes selling. People are just not moving as often is really what it comes down to. So that’s that’s one of the big the big takes.
Tracy Venturi:
And that’s for a lot of reasons that we don’t have to go into today. Our listeners, they know. Yeah. We’ve been talking about it all year. So, do you wanna talk about 2024?
Tego Venturi:
Well, let me let me just give a a couple more, data points here on just on pricing. Because when peep some people, when I say there was a market slowdown, they hear prices dropped.
Tracy Venturi:
Right.
Tego Venturi:
We’re talking about 2 different things here. We’re talking about the number of sales are down. In the United States, countrywide, the number of sales are down, right, lowest we’ve seen in a very long time. However, prices, prices have have been kind of holding steady. So give you give you an idea here. Median price for December came in at, Where’s we at here? For a single family detached home, $330,000. That’s the median price.
Tracy Venturi:
Three thirty. And that’s pretty much just the Albuquerque metro close in area.
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. That’s Albuquerque metro single family detached resale homes. Right? I gotta put all these caveats to it because
Tracy Venturi:
Not new construction.
Tego Venturi:
Not new construction. I I I wanna strip out new because most people are more concerned about
Tracy Venturi:
Their home.
Tego Venturi:
What’s happening with my home that I am living in. Exactly. Thing is, not and and that’s only about 3 a half percent higher. Single family detached, excuse me. So these are, you know, condos, townhomes, closer to 10% appreciation. Those came in at $269,000. But the one thing that I always go back to is price per square foot. How did price per square foot change in our market in the last year? And, across the board, it’s about 6% higher for all property types.
Tego Venturi:
It’s somewhere in that 6%, 7% basically is where it ends up being. There was a report that just came out I posted Sit down my Facebook earlier this week, and that was the data from, Freddie Mac. So they just came out with their their year over year number. And for the Albuquerque market, they say home prices went up six point 4% in the last year.
Tracy Venturi:
Which is right in the range you were just saying based on your analysis.
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. Good job. The other thing they they did is they did a analysis saying from the from, March of 2020, which is kinda like, you know,
Tracy Venturi:
interesting date.
Tego Venturi:
It’s an interesting time. Yeah. I mean, that’s kind of
Tracy Venturi:
March 2020.
Tego Venturi:
March 2020. You know? Some some big things happened right then. Home prices in the Albuquerque area since then have gone up 49%. And
Tracy Venturi:
Wow.
Tego Venturi:
You know, I’ve been saying 50%. But, yeah, I mean, That’s what it is. You know? And and so I I just every indicator is the home prices went up in 23. There there’s no no other way to take it.
Tracy Venturi:
Less home selling, home prices went up. Yep. And, You know, our listeners say they’ve been hearing us say that. And like you said, we have to be have the distinguished, You know, we have to distinguish between sales volume and sales prices. Right? Prices are still going up. Yeah. And we believe in 2024, they’re going to continue to rise, not like they did in 2021, 2022, but more like 2023.
Tego Venturi:
And and, honestly, I hope not. We don’t need 14, 17% appreciation in 1 year. That is not sustainable. We talked about it back when that was happening. We’re like, oh, man. This is not good. I hope it slowed down.
Tracy Venturi:
The good news, though, is home Affordability has gotten better in the last 2 months because interest rates have come down.
Tego Venturi:
Yes.
Tracy Venturi:
So Yeah. So it’s really helped. We have a few people that are now Looking for homes because the market has shifted a bit, and they’re out there going, okay. Now I can afford that payment.
Tego Venturi:
I was at a realtor event. Okay. This is gonna sound bad because don’t wanna pick on people. But I was at a realtor event the other day, and somebody said, what are interest rates today? I’m like, you’re a realtor. How could you not know? Anyway but, yeah, I mean, you know, mortgage rates are now in the, you know, you can get into the mid sixes, high sixes, you know, percent, which is about a percent and a half lower than it was not that long ago, a couple couple few months ago. So, yeah, I mean, mortgage rates and, you know, It’s interesting because there’s this whole conversation about mortgage rates are gonna keep going down. That’s the big projection because the fed came out and said they’re gonna drop their rates, which everybody’s saying, okay. Well, that’ll trickle into mortgage rates, which will you know? And and now there’s a lot of people going, well, I’m gonna wait
Tracy Venturi:
until mortgage rates. Come down again. Yeah.
Tego Venturi:
They’re gonna come down again. But You know what? You know how many times people have been wrong about mortgage rates, predicting mortgage rates after doing this for 15 years, Tracy? I just It the timing is never right on what people think mortgage rates are gonna do. So, you know, I think people need to make decision’s more based on what their situation is, if they can afford the payment that works for them, it’s the house that works for them. You know, and and, yeah, you wanna you wanna get it the best rate you can, but sometimes it’s hard to chase that.
Tracy Venturi:
Tego, remember back when we first started being on the radio with Eddie Aragon and KIVA? Mhmm. And he had a Studio on, I think it was San Pedro, and we would drive there and podcasting wasn’t a thing. Nobody had a podcast studio set up. Right? We’d go there, and we’d record the radio show, and we talked about interest rates. And it was like we were predicting things. Things and most of the time we were right, but it was it was interesting to think back how long we’ve been talking about real estate and topics on the radio and on the internet and, How, how it rolls, you know? Yeah.
Tego Venturi:
Yeah.
Tracy Venturi:
So let’s, Let’s go on. So we’ve got spring coming. Right? We know that a lot of people hold off on selling their homes over the winter, over holidays. And they’re thinking about this coming spring when the kids get out of school or whatever. You know, some people are PCS ing. They’re moving from From Kirtland Air Force Base to some other base around the world. And they’re starting to think about getting their house sold and timing and what they should be thinking about. So you’ve put some research into that.
Tego Venturi:
We had a question. Well, this question comes up all the time is, what is the best month to sell my home.
Tracy Venturi:
And best month for what?
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. Well, that’s that’s a good question. I looked at it from a standpoint of what is the the what is the peak month for prices in the Albuquerque market?
Tracy Venturi:
Because our listeners know prices kind of start right now going well. They’re flat a little bit. And then
Tego Venturi:
is usually, Oh, go go ahead. Yeah. Yeah. This time of year is the lower the lowest usually point of the year.
Tracy Venturi:
We know that there’s a peak, and then it it flattens out again for the rest of the year. Traditionally, when we look at those charts, we see them rise up and then slowly go back To a different level the rest of the year. So what’s the research?
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. It’s it it’s actually you know, you think about if you drew a line and you just did it did it like an up and down, like a a wave curve right up and down, up and down, up and down. People thinks that’s what happens every year. Well, actually, what happens, it goes up, comes back a little bit, goes up more, comes back a little bit. So it’s not a a straight up and up up and down every year. Every year, it goes up a little bit more, comes back a little bit, goes up a little bit more, comes back. And that’s what’s been happening year over year for many, many years.
Tracy Venturi:
Pulls back through the fall winter.
Tego Venturi:
You know what I
Tracy Venturi:
if it doesn’t go back, The prices don’t go back usually as low as the year before.
Tego Venturi:
Get this so. So I did a deep I mean, like, a deep dive on this and and and pulled out couple different data points. I looked at price per square foot for our market, for all single family detail I I tried to narrow it down so I could, you know, have a good data set here. Single family homes, price per square foot and how much it changed per year. On average, home prices can change 7%, the price per
Tracy Venturi:
square foot.
Tego Venturi:
Inter year. And so usually, January is the low month and July is the high month.
Tracy Venturi:
June, July?
Tego Venturi:
July. It’s actually end up more being closer to, July, August.
Tracy Venturi:
And And that’s based on sold prices.
Tego Venturi:
Exactly. Okay. And that’s what I wanna get at, Tracy, is if somebody is thinking of selling their home this year and they’re saying, okay, the peak month to get the most or when when home prices, know, when homes close, what month is it the highest? It’s usually July. But what does that mean? That means that home, you gotta back it up. You gotta back up for the escrow period from, you know, contract to close and all the due diligence period. And let’s say that’s 50 days, which is very common. It’s actually 57 days on average in 2023. And you also gotta back it up for the time on the market, right, days on market.
Tego Venturi:
You know, how much marketing time is it gonna be? Let’s say that’s another 2, 3 weeks. I mean, it depends on the home. Right? And that’s that can vary a lot. But on average right now, it’s running 21 days.
Tracy Venturi:
Right. So we’re now at, Let’s just say 45 plus 21. So that’s 66
Tego Venturi:
60 days, 2 months.
Tracy Venturi:
Days, 2 months, two and a half months.
Tego Venturi:
And then you also have to do, which we think is you know, if you really wanna maximize how much you get for your home when you sell it is preparing it.
Tracy Venturi:
Right. So, basically, there’s 3 steps here.
Tego Venturi:
Yeah.
Tracy Venturi:
We’ve got the prepare your home for the market time. And what we know from talking to home sellers for 21 years Is they underestimate how long it’s going to take them to have their house ready to be on the market. They say, oh, that’s alright. I’ll get it all ready to go this weekend. And then this weekend, the Kid has the flu, or they get to 1 third of what they thought they would.
Tego Venturi:
You know, I’ve, you know, I’ve never noticed on home projects that they take longer than I expected.
Tracy Venturi:
Yeah. Always. So so what we know is people underestimate the time it’s gonna take to get their house sale ready. And Yeah. Obviously, the to net the most for your home, putting in that elbow grease and that time up front to fix some things, to Clean things up to maybe refresh.
Tego Venturi:
For the baseboards.
Tracy Venturi:
Yeah. Well, you know, one of the things that you talk about a lot when we walk through someone’s house is replace all those outlet Covers that have yellowed or that are missing little pieces or
Tego Venturi:
They’re dirty or
Tracy Venturi:
Little cracked or whatever.
Tego Venturi:
I mean yeah. I mean, you know, an outlet wall plate is a buck and a half. Right? It’s
Tracy Venturi:
Yeah. I don’t know.
Tego Venturi:
Super simple to do. Yeah. They’re they’re cheap. And, or, you know, at least at least clean them up because of the Clean
Tracy Venturi:
out the the light the globes on your lights and things where bugs have crawled in. Anyway, everything takes time. Deorganize or Decluttering. Right? Putting away stuff that you’re used to having out. You wanna make your house as much as a of a show model as you can, as clean and scent free as possible, And that can take some time. So now we’re at two and a half months from July. And and how long does it take to get the house ready. Right?
Tego Venturi:
Right.
Tracy Venturi:
Some people need a few weeks. Yeah. You know, a few weekends, some extra help. They might need to get a storage unit and move some things or Pack up a lot of boxes and put them in the garage. My tip is most people have already decided if they wanna buy the house or not by the time they get to the garage. So while it’s Great to see a beautiful, organized, clean garage. It’s okay to pack boxes and put them out there because people have already decided if they love the house. I know.
Tego Venturi:
I was gonna say one thing about, you know, when it’s a, a a man and woman couple and who makes the decision in the end. Garage is I’ll just say the garage isn’t quite as important depending on who your decision maker is.
Tracy Venturi:
Right.
Tego Venturi:
Just been you know?
Tracy Venturi:
So that’s one stage.
Tego Venturi:
Yeah.
Tracy Venturi:
So the first stage is hub house prep. Right?
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. And and part of that, though, is consulting with a professional that can help you understand what you need to do because I we’ve so many times, we’ve seen people do stuff that was either either unnecessary or maybe even hurt the value of the property, as as they thought maybe it was gonna enhance the value, or was it cost them more than actually, the the game you got out of
Tracy Venturi:
Yeah. Yeah. And that’s so true. We’d love to get in with you as early as possible to give you that help on what’s your punch list, how do we get your house staged To the best possible way to present it. And and you’re right. A lot of people, choose things that bother them that might not be what we would suggest they do. So that’s the first thing.
Tego Venturi:
So let let me let me back this up. So best month to list your home. And this I wrote this on my Facebook yesterday after, you know, doing this deep dive in or 2 days ago and deep dive on this. And and so so let’s say that peak month is, July, June. Some let’s say June. Okay? And we we need time to close. Okay. That’s a month and a half.
Tego Venturi:
Alright? We need time for it to be on the market.
Tracy Venturi:
Month and a half takes you back to April? Yeah.
Tego Venturi:
It takes you back to April. And then maybe depending on time on market, like, how long is that home gonna be on the market. Some homes just take longer. And and part
Tracy Venturi:
of that average is 21 days, you said?
Tego Venturi:
Average is 21 days. So if it is a $300,000 house in great condition in a in an in an area that, you know, is in desirable, it’s gonna sell fast. Right?
Tracy Venturi:
Right.
Tego Venturi:
If it’s a $1,000,000, kinda unique, has a few kinda quirks to it that maybe not for everybody, you have to take that into an account when you’re thinking about, okay, how long is it gonna take to find the right buyer for this property?
Tracy Venturi:
Right. So now we’re sorted to the beginning of April, End of March.
Tego Venturi:
People were going, you guys are just talking in circles, aren’t you? I know. It but it’s like there’s so many things to consider. That’s just it. Right?
Tracy Venturi:
Right. So so, really, We’re looking at March. March. If you wanna sell your house this summer, we should be getting your house on the market.
Tego Venturi:
Be talking right now. I know it’s January, but we really need to be talking right now. You need to you know, if if you are gonna be selling this year, you need to be thinking about it right now, starting to put a plan together, you know, thinking about doing your punch list in in February, and so you can, you know, hit the market ready to go. I I just on a side note on this, Zillow did a survey earlier this early early, you know, in 23 end of 23. I mean, I know I got a key, and it’s like that whole thing. You know? Every time we go through this, every year, we gotta, like, think about, okay, what year are we in?
Tracy Venturi:
I did write 2024 on a document Today, I was really proud that
Tego Venturi:
I a check yesterday, and I had to stop and think about it. I know I don’t write
Tracy Venturi:
a paper call.
Tego Venturi:
A paper check. Yes. I know. I know. So 19 nineties. Yeah. But, what was I saying? Anyway, no. No.
Tego Venturi:
No.
Tracy Venturi:
The The Zillow study.
Tego Venturi:
The Zillow survey, and they were just, you know, regrets of home sellers. Right? And and we always talk about the one that people, you know, regret they didn’t take enough time to get the home ready, get it spit shined and polished and ready. One that came up this this last year was not just the curb appeal, but the digital curb appeal. Right? Getting doing everything right and making sure you get the really good marketing, collateral, if you will, for the home, you know, and merchandise important. Digitally. Right? Yeah. Which leads us to Zillow showcase listing.
Tracy Venturi:
We have a special program. We’re one of the few in the whole state That has been offered this program, and we have opted to buy it. And we are now offering this for, some of our home sellers, Showcase Plus with Zillow. Yeah. So if you Premium marketing.
Tego Venturi:
You know, what what’s every year, there’s just more and more progression in, you know, how properties are displayed online, and now we have interactive floor plans on the digital, right me, on Zillow, right on the the website. As people are looking at the home, they can click on a room and know exactly what room they’re in. Because if anybody’s ever looked at properties online, they’re clicking through photos going, okay. How does that room connect to that room? And, wait, what am I looking at here? Well, now it all comes together because you have the floor plan and the photos interactive.
Tracy Venturi:
You on the floor plan where you’re at when you’re looking at the photo. Yeah. Although when you’re on Zillow looking at these properties, don’t click Ask for a realtor on Zillow. Call us directly. Don’t click for there. You’ll get some random person that’s gonna try to help you with that house. So Call us, 448-8888, and we’d be happy to help you. But if you’re thinking of selling, let’s talk about the Show case plus and see if it’s the right fit for your property to get you premium online marketing.
Tego Venturi:
Alright. It’s the 1st week of 2024 here in Albuquerque talking about real estate. We gotta do a little bit of, crystal ball forecasting here, Tracy.
Tracy Venturi:
Okay. I know you’ve been doing a lot of research and looking at a lot of people that have prognosticated.
Tego Venturi:
Prognostic.
Tracy Venturi:
A lot of prognosticators and what they’re all thinking and saying.
Tego Venturi:
Prognosticate in public.
Tracy Venturi:
Yeah. Well, so here we are prognosticating now.
Tego Venturi:
So we are gonna
Tracy Venturi:
progress. I
Tego Venturi:
can I can say
Tracy Venturi:
that? We, we have our own feet on the street beliefs. Right?
Tego Venturi:
So Well, and that’s what I wanna hear what you’re thinking because I’ve got data, but I wanna hear what you’re like, just like the feel, like the gut instinct of of what 2024 is gonna be like in real estate.
Tracy Venturi:
Okay. You done talking? Okay. Cut me off.
Tego Venturi:
Welcome to our dinner conversation.
Tracy Venturi:
Yeah. For sure. So, Yeah. I I see all these different people from all over the country or world or wherever they’re at telling us what we’re gonna expect in Albuquerque, but we’re here with feet on the street, You know, 30 people working together on Venturi Realty Group to help home buyers and sellers and investors with their real estate needs. And what my belief is for 2024 is that almost 8,000 some houses that were sold this past year, I think we’re gonna be Up. I think we’re gonna sell more homes this year in our market. I don’t know if we’ll be to the 11,000, but that’s not my deal. That’s more you numbers.
Tracy Venturi:
But I I feel like we’re already seeing an uptick. There are people who were kind of on the fence waiting to buy, People waiting to sell and some waiting till the holidays were over. And I feel a bit of energy around the market Picking up. I I believe based on everything I’ve seen, our home prices are gonna continue to go up in 2024. Again, A nice steady pace, maybe a little bit above what’s healthy of 3 to 4%. Maybe it’s more 5 to 6%. I know. I’m not the numbers girl, but I I I believe that’s kinda what we’re gonna see for the year.
Tego Venturi:
I heard somebody say it feels like it’s a rubber band that’s been stretched didn’t stretch, like our our housing market, as in you’ve got all this pent up energy around wanting to sell or wanting to buy, And there’s just a lot of, like, okay. I just, you know, wanna get that get this going. Right? And so I feel like there is something gonna happen in in that sense. There’s a lot of energy, I think, around that. And and that, you know, we just don’t know, But that’s the feeling that we have based on lots of conversations with lots of people. You know?
Tracy Venturi:
I think too, We have a lot of really great loan programs available for a lot of different circumstances right now. There was a time where There was just not if you did not fit in this tiny little box with your credit score and your employment or your net worth or whatever, You didn’t you couldn’t get a loan. I think we’re to a point now where it’s very solid lending. It’s not like risky. Ski?
Tego Venturi:
It’s not like like 2005 loans.
Tracy Venturi:
No. Not like that. You still have to qualify. You have to have decent credit, but there are loans for let’s say you need To sell to buy. Right? And you’re going, how do I do that? I don’t wanna sell and have to move somewhere just to be able to buy. There’s plenty of lenders locally now who can do bridge loans, or they can do home equity lines of credit against the value of your current home to get you money. Yeah. So lots of really good lending programs.
Tego Venturi:
Let me give you some just, kind of across the board some some
Tracy Venturi:
Data.
Tego Venturi:
Data.
Tracy Venturi:
Yeah. What what some of the data
Tego Venturi:
changes are. So there there’s, 1, survey that happens every quarter where they, this this Group goes out and surveys a 100 different economists and experts in the housing world, and it’s the the pulse the Fannie Mae, pulse Pulsenomics, I think, is how you say it. And And I I like to look at it, and there’s a few people I kind of, you know, follow that are on this survey that jump out at me. You know, Auction.com, the the chief economist there, I like because that that group specializes in distressed properties in particular.
Tracy Venturi:
This meaning foreclosure to properties.
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. Foreclosure. You know, Zillow, we know they got a lot of great data. Anyway, just on and on. CoreLogic, which has probably the most the largest database on housing in the country. No doubt about it. But across the board. The thing that’s interesting, though, is, Zillow’s projection for the United States is 0, in their most recent read.
Tego Venturi:
Now on this this survey of all these, you know, different, economists, the average is 2 a half percent price appreciation next year into well, this year, 2024. But Zillow saying 1.7% national excuse me. 0 nationally. The thing I like about the Zillow survey or the Zillow projection, is they break out every market, and they put Albuquerque at 1.7%. So they’re actually projecting Albuquerque higher than nationally. They’re saying 0. I think they’re wrong. I I think it’s not gonna be 0.
Tego Venturi:
I think there’s gonna be more appreciation in that business.
Tracy Venturi:
Interesting because as you scroll through all those different places that have put out what believe it’s gonna happen in 2024. I saw some that were in the 7% range. Right. Some minus almost 4% range.
Tego Venturi:
There’s 1 person that’s a minus 10, but I think this person specializes in commercial, so that could happen. Right? You know? So when you hear things about real estate and that there’s a real estate crash coming, well, okay, Commercial real estate’s a whole different world, and, yes, there are some there are some concerns there because of the way the mortgages are structured in commercial, but that’s a whole different conversation.
Tracy Venturi:
We don’t see any sort of crash coming, though. Just to say those words scares me because people heard you say crash, real estate crash, and that’s not at all what’s What we’re expecting in the residential real estate field.
Tego Venturi:
Not at all. I I I would say into 2024, I expect home prices to appreciate in 2024 for the Albuquerque area. I expect the number of sales happening is gonna increase. I think 2023 was our low year, and and we’re just gonna see more people, you know, moving in moving up, moving down, moving across, whatever it is. We’re gonna see mortgage rates, I think stay relatively flat, probably be in this 6 low 6, mid 6 range all year. Some people are saying we might get into the fives, but I’m a little
Tracy Venturi:
I think the Fed policy is too tight for that.
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. In yeah.
Tracy Venturi:
So One of the takeaways from all that you just said to me is for home buyers. Don’t wait till April, May, June To buy if you’re thinking of buying because that is the peak of home prices for the year. So we’re gonna see it steadily go up between now And early summer?
Tego Venturi:
Yeah. Well, I think Yeah. Probably
Tracy Venturi:
Typically? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Tego Venturi:
Mid mid summer.
Tracy Venturi:
And then it’ll flatten out again Through the year, but not come down to where we’re at today if we follow 30 years of history. Correct. So Correct. You might wanna buy now while there aren’t as many buyers out They’re vying for those properties, and, and before, they go up a little bit, home prices.
Tego Venturi:
Beautiful color coded chart. It’s on our, my Facebook. It’s also on YouTube where I break down the seasonal pricing patterns here in the Albuquerque area. So you can look it up on YouTube. It’s Aventuri Realty Group, or on my own personal, Facebook. It’s, Tego Venturi, and we are the Venturi Group with Real Broker. That’s right. Albuquerque.
Tracy Venturi:
Always always happy to talk real estate. So we’re at 448-8888. You know how to reach us. We’re also on the web. Welcomehomeabq.Com. We’re on YouTube. We’re on Twitter. We’re on Instagram.
Tracy Venturi:
We’re on the Kiva. So thanks for listening, and, we’ll catch you next week.