Zillow Says Home Values Will Fall – But Albuquerque Defies the Forecast

Welcome to Episode 532 of the Albuquerque Real Estate Podcast with your hosts, Tego and Tracy Venturi of the Venturi Realty Group at Real Broker. This week, the team breaks down Zillow’s latest housing forecast and dives into what it actually means for New Mexico. As Tego puts it, “Zillow turns bearish,” predicting a 1.7% national decline in home values over the next 12 months—but that’s not the story here in Albuquerque.

📊 Albuquerque Ranked #13 Out of 200 U.S. Metros for Price Growth

“Of the top 200 markets in the country,” Tego says, “Albuquerque was ranked 13th for forecasted home price increases over the next year.” While the national headlines warn of falling prices, the data paints a far more optimistic picture locally.

• Projected national decline: -1.7%
• Albuquerque’s projected rise: Among the top 15 metros in the nation
• Santa Fe comparison: Median list price of $800K vs. ABQ’s $400K

Tego and Tracy explain that while list prices may fluctuate due to smaller homes entering the market, price per square foot and sold prices remain strong.

🏠 Parade of Homes – Spring 2025

Tracy highlights this season’s Homes of Enchantment Parade, showcasing new builds by top custom home builders. Many homes are built specifically for this event, making it a great time for buyers to see fresh design trends and construction quality.

“It’s one of my favorite times of year,” says Tracy. “These homes are beautifully staged and give a real sense of the lifestyle each builder brings to the table.”

💵 Down Payment Assistance – Not Just for First-Time Buyers

This week, the podcast also revisits down payment assistance (DPA) programs. “It’s not just for first-time homebuyers,” Tego notes. “A lot of people qualify who don’t realize they do.”

• Programs for moderate-income households
• Up to $25K in assistance in some cases
• Available for repeat buyers too, not just first-time purchasers

These programs can mean the difference between waiting and owning—especially in a market where interest rates are stabilizing but not yet dropping significantly.

🌄 Luxury Market Talk: ABQ vs. Santa Fe

During a recent speaking engagement in Santa Fe, Tego noticed just how different the two markets remain. “Median list price there is $800,000,” he explains. “In Albuquerque, we’re still around the $400,000 range.”

While Tracy is a certified luxury expert, she laughs: “This afternoon I’m showing condos that start at $120,000. That’s the beauty of our market—we cover everything from high-end custom homes to affordable first homes.”

🧠 Final Takeaway

Despite the noise in the national headlines, the numbers don’t lie—Albuquerque’s housing market remains stable, healthy, and well-positioned for long-term growth.

Whether you’re considering buying, selling, or just staying informed, the Venturi Realty Group brings unmatched insight and data-driven advice to help you navigate it all.