Is Albuquerque experiencing another housing bubble?

(Transcript Snippet): “Tego: The quote that I’ve been repeating is from Laurence Hune, who is the chief economist at the national association of realtors. One of the guys that I follow guys and gals, there’s some great housing economists out there that,uI follow. And,uyou know what, they’re all on Twitter too, which is great. I can, I can get an update, you know, hear what everybody has to say. Anyway, his quote that’s been repeated quite a bit right now is this is not a housing bubble. This is just a lack of supply. And, you know, we were talking to some folks the other day, Tracy,uat lunch, you know, and, and they were like, well, you know, well, there were no homes built. Well, yeah, that’s part of it. Yes. We had very few homes built. Right.
Tracy: We were down over a 10 year span by about 20 million housing starts, right. During the teen years of 2009 to 2019, right?
Tego: No, no. Yeah, no.
Tracy: Instead of 28 million houses built over that timeframe, there was about 6 million. So that was a huge number of houses that we needed to be built to accommodate what we need right now.
Tego: Yeah. And here in Albuquerque, we’re actually behind even some of the other markets and Southwest in construction, we have not built at the same pace as some of the other markets. So yes, we were definitely behind in new construction. There, I mean, again, there’s, you know, it’s a perfect storm of things happening, you know, we’ve talked about the fact that a lot of people decided not to sell last year for whatever reason. Right. You know, w we, April, may of last year, half the number of homes came on the market that normally do
Tracy: So April, may last year was the beginning of COVID. Right. We didn’t know what was happening. People were at home, they weren’t going out. And I mean, how could people decide to make their house available to be purchased or for sale during the beginnings of the pandemic? I mean, it’s, it’s easy to forget how difficult it was. Then we did not know people were, you know, not even bringing groceries into their house before they let them sit for a day or two or wipe them all down if they had some sort of disinfectant. So selling a house was not the top priority a year ago.
Tego: Yeah. No. So, so that’s part of it. So we’ve never caught up from that. So we got me find the, the thing is, and I’ve said this many times is February of last year, 2019, 2020. We were, we already knew that we were going to have tight supply, you know, the, the pandemic just kind of exacerbated the problem that was already building and had been building. Right. The, the other thing you have to account for is the millennial boom, right? The number of people that are turning, you know, are in that age from the late twenties to early thirties that are doing household formations.
Tracy & Tego Venturi
Venturi Realty Group
Keller Williams
1119 Alameda Blvd NW
Albuquerque, NM 87114
(505) 448-8888