Happy New Year. 2023. I am Eddy Aragon the rock of talk here with Tego and Tracy Venturi, the Venturi real estate group from Keller Williams Realty. Pick up the phone, dial them to start 2023 505-448-8888. If you want to talk to them on the phone or go to the better yet, go to the number one website for real estate in the state of New Mexico, that is. WelcomehomeABQ.com. That’s welcomehomeabq.com and Tego, Tracy, let’s kick it off. Let’s take it away. Another good year, hopefully in store for us, and lots of things to talk about. Probably a wrap on 22 and then some. Take it away, guys.
Thank you. We’re so happy to be here in 2023. The last two weeks, Tego, we haven’t been live. Yeah, and we both got that RSV or whatever it is, and we could hardly think, let alone do our radio show. Right.
Fun stuff. I think, you know, as most people know, there’s a lot of that going around these days, so you can probably hear it in my voice tell, but we’re here. We’re here, we’re into 2023, and the real estate market in the Albuquerque area is moving along like it always has, always does. 2022 was quite the year in real estate in a few different ways, and so we can talk about that. And I’ve got some trends for 2023 that I’ve seen come up that were kind of interesting, great. As well as, what do you have for us?
Well, I always have stories, so I’ve got a few of those to talk about. But it’s interesting because while we were both feeling pretty crummy for the last few weeks over the holidays, all of the holidays, we still were able because we’ve got such an awesome team working with us, we were still able to take care of all the people who needed help buying and selling homes over the holidays. And honestly, we say this in advance of the holidays, when home sellers call us in October, September, October, November, and they say, well, should I put my house on the market now or should I wait till after the holidays? We always say people have time off over the holidays. They don’t normally have off. And people make changes because schools typically have quarters or semester ending, too. And it was true this year, too. We had people over the holidays that were needing to buy or sell a house, and it was a great time to be a buyer or a seller over the holidays. Here we are with kids going back to school, a lot of them today, so maybe people now have time to think about houses again if they were busy with kids over the holidays.
Yeah, but we’re here. We have a great team, people that help with selling houses on our team, people that help with buyers. We do a lot of relocation, a lot of veterans with VA loans, a lot of first time buyers. We do luxury. We cover a huge area.
Tego, we do in the greater Albuquerque area. There’s about we’re just about a million people in our area. And Albuquerque is unique in that it’s kind of we have our single metro area. Right. And there’s not much beyond us until you get to Santa Fe, right?
Yeah. Our metro is really Los lunas Bosque Farms, Moriarty Edgewood south of.
Belen, north to Algaeonis, east to Moriarty, east to Moriarty and west to whatever. Escarpment.
Yeah, but honestly, we do Santa Fe, too. And we have several people on our team that cover Santa Fe. I don’t think we talk about Santa Fe very much on the station just because I don’t know that there’s a lot of Santa Fe listening. But then that’s short sighted because they’re online.
I got one story that jumped out at me this week, and it was a survey of one of the moving company, I think, Atlas Van Lines, and one of the moving companies. They were talking about what markets in 2022 saw the most inbound versus outbound. And it was interesting because Santa Fe was in the top five more people moving in than moving out based on this particular moving company. And if you look at New Mexico as a whole, there has been more people coming here, and that trend seems to be continuing.
You know, Tego that you mentioned that I can think of three Realtors from different states that I’ve talked to in the last month who told me that they regularly visit Santa Fe or Taos or Angel Fire and that they intend to buy in one of those markets this year.
So it’s interesting because other Realtors are loving New Mexico, too.
Well, Tracy, let’s just start off with this topic. If you’re thinking of selling your home this year or, you know, somebody thinking or selling, just a couple yeah, some best practices, just a few tips to think about. And we say it all the time. We’re going to say it again. The biggest regret people have when they’re selling their property is they don’t plan early enough. They don’t start getting ready early enough.
There’s just a lot of things that take time to add into your regular full life to get your house ready to sell.
So we’re in early January now. Based on data that I look at year over year over year is the best time to get your home on the market is probably end of February, March, maybe even early April. And once you kind of get past that, the market tends to slow down. So if you’re thinking about selling your home this year, the timing is is right now to start thinking about getting it ready, doing the cleaning, getting it, you know, ready, ready for refreshed and ready. But top three tips, tracy, obviously what.
You just said is huge, right? Planning enough time to really have your house presented in the best light possible to net you the most for your home. Right. Then it’s all about pricing your home. Right. We have to price your home now for the current market. Looking forward, not very backward, right? A lot of times we would go, oh, well, here’s what sold in the last six months or a year, but we’re in a different market. And that’s part of what’s really important, is pricing the home.
One thing that definitely happened in 2022 is the market in the spring versus the market in the late summer. Total two totally different markets in in the Albuquerque area. And and going into, you know, 2023, it’s it’s very different than the beginning of 2022. And so you just need to to understand that when you’re, when you’re getting ready to put your home on the market.
So what we know Tego and we would talk with people when we meet with them to talk about their home sale, is we know that in the first two or three days of a house being on the market, everybody who’s looking for a house has seen that property online. They’re online, they have seen it, and they’re either going to say, wow, for this house, it looks like it’s priced well, I want to see it, or it doesn’t seem like it’s priced right, and they reject it. Right? So within the first few weeks, we’ve had all the inperson tours or the virtual tours of the house, and we’re either priced right or we’re not, and we’re helping other people sell. So pricing is pretty important.
So the other one is is just keeping your emotions in check. And and I’ll put a piece of data to this, and that is it used to be that the average tenure in a home, the time that people stayed in the home was about five, six, seven years. You know, we used to hear that for for the longest time. Well, what’s happened is people are now staying in their homes, on average, ten years, so people are more emotionally attached to their home. And it’s that whole thing we always say is like, when you put your home on the market, you have to detach from it as a home, and now it becomes a product. And that’s difficult, right? I mean, you’ve made memories in a home and all of that, but it does become a product, and you’re marketing this product, you’re merchandising this product, so you have to think of it that way. So it’s just that emotional detachment to a certain extent, from your property. And then the third one, Tracy, is pretty common, and we talk about it all the time, is staging. But staging isn’t just a matter of rearranging furniture, right?
Staging is actually kind of a really big thing. And when we just say staging, people go somewhere and say, staging means this. But really staging is the whole picture of your property from curb appeal to the landscaping, to your front entry area, to your front door, to how your house feels and smells the minute somebody walks in it. And having somebody with we do this a lot. Having one of our team members come and give you the truth about how your house presents so that the advice can be given to help somebody. Maybe rearrange furniture, maybe change photos that are up on the walls, maybe repaint, refresh, clean. Because we get used to our house as we live in it.
But how we live in our house is not necessarily how we want it presented to the public for sale to net the most money out of it. Right?
So the staging piece is a really big picture, and for some people, the house might be sitting vacant. And it means renting furniture from a stager who comes in and places it in the house to make it feel more appealing to taking what you currently have and maybe rearranging it or putting away half of everything that’s on every shelf and every picture or whatever. But the other thing, Tego, I think, to add to this that’s really important is the deep cleaning of the property inside and outside. Right. We get used to how the house feels.
Absolutely. Live in it and have a friend that can be honest with you, come in and talk to you about it. We don’t you know, we don’t want to hear it. But a third party to help you out is always good. And that could be a realtor, or it could be a friend of yours.
Totally. So we are Tego and Tracy venturi. This is Albuquerque Real Estate talk. We’re with Keller Williams realty here locally and tego. We personally have a house that’s going to be coming on the market soon that I wanted to make sure to talk about. We are currently waiting for the stager to stage that house. Right. It’s a vacant house. It’s had a huge update. New kitchen, cabinets, counters, new fixtures, new flooring, new everything. Right. Bathrooms, kitchen, pretty much top to bottom. So this house is going to be $450,000. It’s in the near North Valley, near Rio Grande and Matthew, and it’s on a quarter acre, a beautiful single story home. Really gorgeous. So if you’re in the market for something in that area and that house might meet your needs, give us a call right away. It’s available. We’re just not going to be on the market for a while because we’re waiting for some staging and some photos after that. But it’s definitely ready for its new owner.
Tracy, I want to talk about some trends that I saw out there for design trends for homes for 2023. And the first comes from the National Kitchen and Bath Association.
Of course. We’re going to talk about kitchens and baths then.
Yeah, exactly. And so what they did is they did some surveys, and what they’re saying is 77% of people are talking about removing their bathtub, increasing their shower size when we’re talking about bathroom.
I hadn’t seen this trend. But, you know, that’s so interesting because when we’re working with builders and people like building custom homes and new construction and a lot of the production builders like Polty and Abrazo and Twilight and Dr. Horton, a lot of those homes, now, the master doesn’t have a bathtub. Right. They have a shower. So the recommendation has been at least keep a bathtub in one bathroom in the house for those bathtub users. So interesting that I know we’re going to do that in a house that we own. We’re going to take out the tub and make a bigger shower.
We are. It’s on my list for 20.
Okay, well, you all are hearing at first just like me. Okay. So along that line, another person, Chris Smith, who’s a real estate guy, he did some work looking at Pinterest and what people were searching for on Pinterest. Again, along design trends and shower, basically redoing showers as walk in showers. The number of people researching that went up has gone up substantially. So again, it’s that bathtubs are kind of not as popular. Not everybody says I have to have a bathtub and they’re converting that full bath into a three quarter bath. So that’s one of those trends that’s out there.
Let’s talk about that real quick.
The difference between a full bath and a three quarter bath.
Yeah, that’s great.
You said it really quickly.
Yeah. No, I think let’s talk first for.
Statistic reasons in the Multiple Listing service and in the world, what’s the difference between a three quarter bath and a full bath?
So every bathroom has four components a sink, a toilet, a shower and a bathtub. Right.
And sometimes it’s a shower that’s over a bathtub.
Right. But again, that’s your four component. That’s your four component that makes a full bath. If it only has three of the components, a shower, a sink and a toilet, it’s a three quarter bath. If it’s just two of the components, a sink and a toilet, it’s a half bath.
So when I was growing up, there were seven of us in our farmhouse in Minnesota, and we had one bath with a tub, but no shower.
And, you know, my dad was really handy. How hard would it have been for him to bust through that wall and put a shower head? I guess that wasn’t the thing back in the it just wasn’t, right?
So we had basically a three quarter because we didn’t have the shower above our bathtub for all seven of us.
Right. A couple of other things on bathroom trends was we had talked about removing the bathtub. It’s removing some walls, increased the size of the bathroom and connecting it to the dressing area or having a dressing area or closet connection to the bathroom was another trend that people are wanting.
And so it was interesting because one of the trends that I’ve seen just from being in houses and new construction in the past few years is the Approximity of the laundry room to the master. So a lot of times now we’re seeing that the laundry room is connected to the master closet. So you go right through the master closet to the laundry room from the master, and then there’s usually an entrance, two entrances into the laundry, one from the main house, but one right from the closet in the master. So it’s sort of a pass through room.
Well, and that can’t always work, obviously, with an existing home, but a lot of the new designs are putting that in. And then just one other thing on the 2023 trends when we’re talking about kitchens again, this is the National Kitchen and Bath Association. They said 76% of people surveyed want large island that can also function as a dining table. And we’ve seen that in design here for quite a while, been really common.
You know, in the Southwest we’re so different because our house footprints are very different from like East Coast, midwest, older areas where there was the front room for formal guests and the dining room was not connected to the kitchen and the kitchen was very separate. There’s still houses in Albuquerque where the kitchen is very separate and kind of out of the way. Not just have guests see the kitchen, but most of the houses that have been built in the last 20 years here are very open concept, which is very different from older houses. And a lot of the older houses that get renewed and updated get walls torn down to open the kitchen so people can hang out in the kitchen when they’re entertaining or the whole family can sit around the island and have dinner together, which we’re quite familiar with. We are of course, there’s only two of us now at home, but when everyone’s over, that island is a busy place.
Sure. Tracy, let’s talk about 72 sold a little bit. And that strategy and that system for helping people get their home sold, we’re sure we’re involved with 72 sold and and you’re the the expert on it.
Sure, we’re regional directors for 72 Sold. Now, we are very familiar with the Phoenix market because we have kids there and sister and brother in law there. And 72 Sold started in the Phoenix area. It’s a program to help sellers sell their home fast for top dollar. It’s nationally showing in MLS’s for three years running that people are netting eight to 12% more when they sell their house using this program. So, of course, since they’ve allowed us to become a part of that program, we’ve jumped on board because we’re very familiar with the program and their advertising. So we’re offering the 72 sold program for people who want to sell their house and we’d be happy to talk with you about how the program works and why it works and help you sell your house. The 72 Sold way.
Yeah, it’s a very specific system. It’s a home selling system, and it’s a program, and it’s very detailed and laid out on the steps in the process. And if you’re interested in it and want to know more about it, just give us a shout.
Right. You know, there’s over 1505 star testimonials on Google for 72 Sold, and we’re believers, so we look forward to being ambassadors for that program in New Mexico, because we’re covering a large part of New Mexico as representatives for 72 Sold.
Great. All right, awesome.
I’m sure you have some stats for us.
We got to do some stats. It’s January statomatic. It’s January 2023. And let’s talk about December and just kind of what we’re seeing right now on the ground in the real estate market. You know, Tracy, there’s been so much news about the real estate market nationally as well as locally, but more nationally. There’s been a lot of doom and gloom stories about the real estate market, and we’re heading for a crash again. And I just want to talk about that really quick. First and foremost is a lot of people want to compare the slowdown in the real estate market to what happened in 2008 and 2009. And it’s a very different time than it was then. One of the most telling things is right now in the Albuquerque area, there’s about, let’s say, 1301, 400 homes on the market, right. So that’s homes available in the MLS on the market for sale, which is very low compared to what we saw back in the day. And what happened was the market didn’t really start turning until 2008, and in 2007, home prices were still going up. We had over 7000 homes in the market.
A lot of houses we’re like at 1200.
So just from a supply demand standpoint, it’s very, very different. The other thing we don’t have that we had back in 2008 and 2009 is people that were in a lot of distress on their home basically not able to keep up with their payments. There were a lot of people that had adjustable rate mortgages that were resetting. We don’t really have any adjustable rate mortgages in the system anymore. Most of those went away. So there’s a lot of differences in that as well. So I just wanted to hit on that first that the only thing that you can look at that compares to what happened in 2007 or 2008, really, is that you had this huge run up in prices over a very short period of time. And we’ve had that, we’ve had that here in Albuquerque over the last two years. And just to give you an idea, at the beginning of the pandemic, the median home price in Albuquerque was about 320,000, $330,000. So if I go back to march of 2020, it was 330,000. Or, excuse me, I jumped ahead of myself, it was $230,000 in March of 2020. Today median price for homes in Albuquerque closed in December of just last month of 22, $320,000 100,000.
So we went from three years 230 to 320, right. Over that three year period. That’s a huge increase. So, yes, we have had quite a bit of increase in home prices over that time. Great for people that have owned the homes over that period.
So that’s one of the reasons that homeowners are in a very good position, right? They’ve got great balance sheets, they have a lot of equity. Now, a couple of things also on home prices. We did hit a peak back in May of this year at 335, and now we’re at 320. So we have seen home prices pull back slightly since summer. But as you know, Tracy, that happens every year, where we do have very typical a spring increase and then a pullback through the winter. This year, it’s a little more than normal. It’s maybe 2% versus normal year, maybe one, one and a half percent. So interest rates have really taken their toll on the real estate market. And that was really the intent. That’s what the Federal Reserve wanted to do. They wanted to slow down the real estate market by raising rates, the prime rate, which again trickles down into the mortgage rates. And so we went from just over 3% at the beginning of the year 2020, and at one point, we were over 7% on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, right? Well, today mortgage rates are now down in the mid to lower 6% range.
And there’s some programs out there that are offering even better in the five just specific programs. But the Down Payment Assistance program is under six.
Yeah, there are definitely some programs out there. There’s a lot of incentives. There’s some adjustable rate mortgages, not the old kind, but programs that do help you get in at a lower payment for a year or two and then potentially adjust. So there’s a lot of there’s a.
Lot of good going creative ideas out.
There and solutions to help people with the home purchase because of the big change in interest rate.
Well, and the big one is the Down Payment Assistance Program, where there’s $25,000 for first time buyers that can be used if they qualify for certain parameters of that program. So somebody hasn’t owned a home in three years. They’re considered a first time buyer. And that program can be awesome to help somebody get into a house right now.
And that’s an amazing program. And if you’re listening and you know somebody that’s thinking to buy and they don’t quite have a lot of savings yeah, they don’t have a lot of savings, but they’ve got steady income. This is an amazing program and an amazing opportunity to help people get into a home. So that’s through the Mortgage Finance Authority. But just reach out to us and we can connect you with a local mortgage lender that can explain the program and help you get through that.
Not every lender has the program, so there’s a few that do it because it’s a bit complex and not everybody offers that program. So we’d be happy to help you get connected with that and find a great house.
I’m going to give you my prediction for 2023 at the end of our half hour show.
Here we are on those 2023 predictions.
Well, there’s been a lot of everybody in the housing economy, as I call it. All the housing experts are putting out their forecast for 2023. And for the most part, most of these people are looking, you know, looking at nationally are looking at a decline in home prices nationally for, for just the the median, for the median home prices. There’s a few that see home prices going up in 2023. There’s more that see home prices going down in 2023. Again, that’s nationally. So every market is so different, right? And what happens in Phoenix is very different than what happens in Albuquerque.
And what I see is we’re still at a very low number of homes on the market. We still have a very tight supply demand ratio, meaning the number of homes on the market versus the number of people wanting homes is very tight. And until that loosens up, I don’t see a whole lot of movement one way or another on home prices. The big question is, what are interest rates going to do in 2023? And right now, it looks like they’re starting to trend down from the highs that we had. And the question is, where is it going to settle? Is it going to settle in a 5% range? And I think if we settle in a 5% range, there’s going to be plenty of buyers that feel like it’s time to get in the market. And Tracy, we know there’s a lot of people out there waiting and do want to buy. They’re just maybe either stretched financially, just waiting for the right home to come on the market because the supply is limited. But there are people out there that want to buy homes.
There really are, for sure. And so that was a lot of words for your prediction. So I’m like going sift through what you said. You said we’re not going to see big price reductions. We’re not even going to probably see any as we start going towards spring.
I expect we will see home prices increase in 2023 on average across the board for the Albuquerque area. It’s not going to be substantial. And that’s fine, right? We don’t need big increases anymore because we’ve done that. We have to get our affordability back in line with what the median wages are. Wages are going up and home prices have kind of stalled. And that’s okay, because we need to get those back in line more. And of course, interest rates coming down are going to help that as well. But I do think home prices are going to be up next year in Albuquerque.
That you’re saying home prices will be up just a little bit, interest rates might come down a little bit. Number of houses on the market isn’t going to change substantially, I don’t think.
So we’ll see here if we get a big surge. But right now, we’re starting the year with around 1300 homes on the market in the Albuquerque area. And that’s a very low number historically now, not as low as 2021 and 2022 starting the year. But comparing to any other year, that’s a very low number of homes on the market. And so it’s going to be interesting to see how many homes come into the market here in the spring, in the next few months.
So there you have it.
Very telling. The foggy crystal ball.