Albuquerque Real Estate Market Update for January 2022

0:01There has been a lot of news and stories about the real estate market in Albuquerque. Just last week, we had the story on the front page of the Albuquerque Journal said, sir, real estate.

0:14 Somebody I know happened to be in the photo on that to delivering a sign, which was kind of unusual for me, but anyway, not about me.

0:22 So let’s take a look at what happened in January. We’ve kind of, you know, we’re past 2021, we’re looking into 2022, we’re looking forward into 2022.

0:32 And I want to give you some of the data, some insights on what we’re seeing right now. And I am going to start, let me move me out of the way here.

0:40 I’m going to start right here. This is really the big story, the number of homes for sale currently, and the January, we were at 614 homes.

0:51 We’re looking at, by the way, the data we’re looking at here. This is the Albuquerque entire Metro Albuquerque area known as the Albuquerque MSA.

0:59 And, uh, these are all single-family residential properties in the Albuquerque area. So 614 ho uh, homes from on sale all-time low as we’re sitting here today on February 7th, I think I saw 650 ish homes on the market so that, you know, that’s really the story.

1:19 We have very few homes on the market. Um, however, you know, we do have homes coming out in the market, but what’s happening is, are selling very fast.

1:26 So if we look at days on market median days on market actually ticked up from five days. We were actually as low as three days back in June and, uh, um, August or may in June.

1:39 And now we’re up at six days, median days on market. Again. So median means that half of the homes are selling within six days of coming on.

1:49 The market average days on market has ticked up as well, 20 days average. Um, again, that is just mind-blowingly low, that how quickly homes are selling, just to kind of give you an idea and we’re looking back, this chart goes back to 2017 and you can see even in 2017, um, which was, uh, which was a healthy market, you know, during the winter months we were at 60 days average during the busy summer month in July, we were at 40 days.

2:18 So again, 20 days is really, really low pricing. Um, there was a big move from December to January, and you can see that here, this is the average price.

2:31 So we actually had a tick down in the average price. We went from a 3 53 to 3 35, uh, December to January.

2:41 However, to put that in perspective, I mean, we’re basically back to, uh, July, which was, uh, the, the peak we had there.

2:48 And then we, for whatever reason, had a little bit of bump up here at the end of the year in November, December.

2:53 Um, I suspect that is going to turn around, um, as we start going into late winter here and into, um, into spring, of course, uh, the median price was pretty much flat and price per square foot, which is really the one I like to look.

3:07 You can see we’ve been on this steady, uh, increase. Uh, I’m going back to 2017, actually, just for perspective, let’s, let’s make this thing go all the way out.

3:17 So now we’re going back to 2003, get me ice out on my way here. Um, from 2003 83, a square foot, we had the big run-up we peaked out in oh seven.

3:30 In this case, it says July oh seven, a 1 32, a square foot. And then of course we had the market, uh, shift if you want to call it that.

3:39 And then somewhere in 2012 or so we had our, uh, we just, you know, had a nice, steady increase if we look at this on a 12 months, um, cycle kind of smooth it out a little bit.

3:52 So we kind of bottomed out in 2012 and ever since then, we’ve actually been on a very nice stair-step increase until 2020.

4:01 And now we’ve really just kind of shot off here, uh, with, um, price increase. Uh, I will tell you, you know, generally we see price declines when the supply versus demand hits a certain, uh, usually around five months, six months supply we’re currently at, let me show you this month’s supply.

4:23 We’re currently at 0.5. Uh, you know, if we go back to price per square foot and we’d look at here, okay.

4:30 2012 is about when prices started to go back up, um, that is when, or let’s look at it this way.

4:38 So prices started to go down somewhere here. Let’s just say, oh seven. If we look at month’s supply and oh seven is right here.

4:47 So this is when month’s supply passed right around five, six months supply that’s when prices started to plateau and then start to decline, uh, here in oh eight when we got to eight, 10 months supply.

5:02 So keep an eye on that. Month’s supply number again right now. We’re at 0.5. Uh, let’s see, what else did I want to show you?

5:10 Oh, close sales. Um, we actually did have a decline from last year. I’m going to make the smaller it’s too much on here.

5:18 Um, so we’re just looking at five months. So we did have a decline of 8% from, uh, January last year to January, this year on an annual basis.

5:28 We’re still, um, uh, so we’re doing a 12 month rolling here. We’re up one and a half percent in a number of closed sales.

5:36 So pretty much equal, uh, with last year. And I, you know, it’s going to be hard. It’s going to be really difficult to surpass last year in sales.

5:46 And then just one last number here. We want to look at, uh, just kind of foretelling the future a little bit, and that is pending sales.

5:54 So we did have, uh, December of this, it, uh, again, pending sales or, you know, future closings. So pending, uh, this year, uh, bottomed out in December in 2019, it was December and 2018 is December.

6:10 So you can see that it’s pretty common that in December is the fewest number of pendings just makes sense with the holidays.

6:18 So we did have an uptick in the number of pendings in January, which is, again, let’s think about this as we’ve got 972 homes pending in January, but we only had 600 and some on the market.

6:32 So again, it goes back to that whole days on market. They’re just selling as soon as they come on. So again, we had a good uptick from December and it’s less than last year, and that doesn’t really concern me because if you look at it, you go back to 20, let’s go back to 2019, the last normal year.

6:52 We’re about equal with that. So, uh, I think we’re still going to have plenty of home sales in Albuquerque. We’re seeing still seeing high demand.

7:01We’re still seeing a low supply. As you can see by the data here, we’re seeing multiple offers. We’re seeing bidding wars.