Hey, I’m 1600 K IVA, 93.7, FM the web, the app rocket talk.com. I met a year ago, the rock of talk year, but my good friends and number one real estate agents here in New Mexico, Chico and Tracy Venturi. They’ve been 40 real estate group from Keller Williams Realty. You can pick up the phone and dial them directly. Four four eight 88 88. That’s four four eight 88 88. Or welcome home maybe q.com. That’s welcome. Home may be q.com and folks we’re looking ahead to 2021 and Tigo and Tracy have a wealth of let’s just say transactions in their past, which are going to help us prepare for 2021 so that we could look at some of what’s happened, not just this year, but also, you know, the past 12 years, if you go back to 2008 and we’re embarking on a brand new territory, almighty low interest rates. And it is uncharted waters and go and trace are going to give us their best advice that looking forward, not to mention their homes of the week and open houses as well. As much as open houses can be open during this pandemic team. Tiecon Tracy. Good morning.
Oh, I don’t want to touch open houses. I just got off anyway. At the moment, just so you know, open houses are sort of a lot, I mean, they’re allowed, it’s not very specific. However, the the, the feature in the MLS that helps promote open houses is, is turned off right now. You know, I think the reality is the real estate agents and, and, you know, sellers and buyers. I mean, I think we’ve been in this long enough that that people know what the right things to do are, and, and you know, haven’t heard of any issues with it, but virtual open houses are a thing and we can, we can definitely delve into to that.
And you guys have that great technology as well. Yeah.
The Matterport, the virtual, a walkthrough immersive walkthrough experience,
The reality is the market is what’s the right word. Insane. I don’t know. I don’t know what the right term is. I mean, the market, the real estate market in Albuquerque, I’m sorry. Jumped right in here. This is Tigo. And we’re here with Tracy Venturi, Venturi Realty group Keller Williams Realty. We can be reached at five Oh five, four four eight 88, 88. But the market is like, we’ve never seen before.
You know, what’s most unusual about the market to go tell me it’s a sellers market and a great time to be a buyer all at the same time. It’s usually
Wait, wait, wait. You’re a real estate agent. Of course. You’re supposed to say that. So, yeah, it is. I mean, when you think about these, these interest rates, right?
Locking in the affordability of homes right now, even if you bought a house today and a year from now, it went down $10,000, but interest rates went up, you’re still going to be having that monthly payment. That’s probably better than what it would have been. If the house price were lower. I have a quote
For that. So this is from black Knight mortgage news daily, like black, black Knight is one of the companies that does the software. Like if you pay your mortgage, a mortgage servicer and the online systems that you pay, it’s good chance that it’s blackmailed software, the backend. So they do a lot of mortgage analytics. They do, they do all kinds of stuff. Anyway. I mean, if you want to like take a wonky view. No, I can’t. I can’t drive me crazy if, if, if you want it
Just keep talking for 15 minutes and we won’t even remember to tell them
Yeah, exactly. Anyway, if you, if you really want to dive deep, and this is the type of stuff I read is, is blackmail puts out market reports every month, very deep dive into what’s going on in with, with, so if you want to know, like the forbearance and the delinquencies and that, that, that thought that, that, that, that’s what they do. Anyway. You’re going to get to the quote I’m going to get there. I’m getting there. I’m almost there for so this was what they put out that says those shopping for a home can afford 10% more home than they could have one year ago while keeping their monthly payment unchanged. This translates into nearly $32,000 more buying power and to 32 is because 320,000 is the median nationwide,
Nationwide home price. Yeah. Yeah.
So we’ve talked about it. We’ve said this many times, I just liked the way they put that
It’s it was very concise, but we waited so long for it. I’m not sure anybody,
We lost a bunch of people as I droned on about black Knight.
You know, so if you want to find out a lot more information stats, information about being a home buyer information about selling your house, you know, not everybody has sold a house before, when they call us, we have a ton of information on our website, more than you’ll find anywhere. That’s really specific because a lot of what we wrote, or we made sure that if it’s there, it’s specific to our market, right. Welcome home. Abq.Com.
I’m I’m, I’m kind of chuckling. Cause yeah, it’s because I maintain the website and I love that stuff. So I put it all on there. I put a couple of different projects on there this week. In fact, when we talk about that. So, so market market data-wise actually let me pull up the website. Actually our website’s behind us here. If you’re watching this on video welcome home abq.com. There is a tab that right there, it says market. And I put a couple of, couple of things that I’ve been tracking. One of them is the, the supply, meaning the number of homes on the market and where, where that’s been trending. So I pulled up some data looking at actual active, like homes on the market, not how many there were last month, not what sold last month, because I to know real time what’s happening in the market.
I don’t want to know what happened last month. And unfortunately, most of the, the real estate market data, we get everything that the the, the news organizations put out is usually backwards looking, right. You know, case Shiller, indexes, you know, a couple months behind, we don’t care what happened two months ago. Oh, I shouldn’t say that. But, but anyway, this is real time. How many homes on the market every single week and, and, you know, one of the things was just obviously, you know, the over Thanksgiving, there was a decline in the number of homes on the market, not a lot, but there was the other thing I’m tracking is luxury market. And let’s talk about that, Tracy, because the luxury market it’s, it is I don’t, I, again, I was like, how do you come up with, with terms for something that just is just so unprecedented in the trend,
Right? Yeah. We, I think we talked about those stats last week on this show, but you know, they continue.
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, if you look at the number of luxury homes, meaning home is $500,000 above and the Albuquerque area we had, let me see November, we had a 85% increase in the number of homes over $500,000 sold this year versus last November. Okay. Now I’m back to backwards looking. But, but if you annualize that, if you look at it over the 12, last 12 months, we’ve had a 38% increase in a number of luxury homes. So,
So the first stat was month over month. It was November last year compared to November this year. But the rolling 12 months is that 38%.
And so it’s, it’s interesting. And, and, you know, a lot of people ask me, it’s like, well, where are these luxury buyers coming from? Why or why is that market is so hot? And I don’t know, how would you answer that trait?
I would say a lot of them are from here. Yep. You know, everybody that, you know, reads the news thinks that they’re coming from out of state. Right. But we have a lot of people that are just getting into and right-sizing their home. They’re going, you know, the interest rates are great. The house we’re in will sell really well. I don’t have to worry about it. And that’s part of our topic today, which is how do I sell a house and buy a house at the same time. So we’re going to talk about that. So I think a lot of people are taking advantage of that. The interest rates are so great that they’re moving into a house. That’s probably significantly more than value-wise in the home they’re in, but their monthly payment is not going to be SIG significantly different because of the interest rates, unless they’ve refinanced in the last year, which if they’re planning to sell, hopefully they’re not refinancing this year because you don’t want to refinance right before you sell the you’re not, does it make financial sense?
I mean, it depends. I mean, there’s usually an 18 month two-year window to recoup if you’re, if you’re somewhere around a 1% interest advantage. Right? So Tracy, let me, let me introduce is, cause you’re the, you’re the expert on, of course you are the buying a home, selling a home at the same time, we get a lot of questions, especially now with the, the ultra low number of homes on the market. It’s, it’s challenging. So how do we do that? I can’t, you know, most people can’t just go buy a home and still have another home that they own. They have to, you know, move that mortgage to another property. So what would you first off, what would you say to somebody that’s thinking of selling, but they don’t want to go through that. What would you tell them? What would be the first piece of advice? You’d give them
First piece of advice. I would say let’s not sugar coat. It it’s tricky to do it. It, it almost always works out like we want, but it, it happens. What I’ve seen statistically Tego, and this is, you know, using that word statistics for you, statistically 71% of the people that are buying a house, a second house, a first house second house, right. They own a house and they’re, they’re having to do it simultaneously. They can’t afford to get the mortgage for their other home, their new home without selling their current home. So, yeah, it’s challenging.
The takeaway on that though, is it’s a very common thing. Common. Yeah. And of course we deal with it all the time. Obviously there’s extra logistics involved, you know, trying to move out of one house. We’ll try to get ready to move into another house. It’s right there. There’s all that. But what about the financing piece? I mean, obviously, you know, if you can’t buy the home without selling your home, how does that work?
So a lot of times people need the money from the one home to be able to close on the other. So that means you would need to sell your home first and be out of it right before you close on your new home and move into it. So there’s that lag in the middle there. So it’s,
So I, I’m going to interrupt you. I know, I promise I won’t interrupt you. I said just about impossible, isn’t it? Is I was going to just say, talk about the simultaneous closing and how that works, where the title company is handling all that money,
Right? So it’s possible to close the same day on both properties. You go in the morning, you signed paperwork to sell your home. It gets funded and recorded by 11, 12. You’re right after you signed to sell your home, you go right to title and may hope ma maybe the same company. Not always. I’ve seen it happen the same time
At the same table with the same escrow officers.
Now we’re going to sign these forms, right? So the, the cell has to fund and record before the funds are available for the buy-side. But a lot of times we can get it to happen that same afternoon so that the cell happens in the morning. And by mid-afternoon late afternoon, the buy happens. Now. Most people, you know, that’s pretty stressful. Think about I’m all packed up. I’ve got the kids in the dogs, in the car and I’m waiting to get the keys to my new home. And the moving truck is waiting and everything’s going so there’s ways we try to minimize, minimize the stress, right? We try to get preoccupied or post-occupancy either post-occupancy at the house you’re selling for a few days or preoccupied. See at the home you’re buying for a few days. There’s, you know, pods where you can have all of your things packed up. They hold them at the pod facility and until you’re ready for them. So that the truck isn’t literally waiting with your things. And, and lots of other strategies that work to help facilitate a buy and sell at the same time.
So what you’re saying, there are obviously extra logistics,
Right. And getting a house, right? So a lot of times people say, well, how do I get an offer accepted on a new home when I need to make it contingent upon selling my current,
Explain contingent just for people listening.
So we make offers that if you have to sell, to be able to buy, we make offers with an extra addendum attached to the form that says this purchase is contingent upon my current home selling to make it simple. Right? And the, the seller, you know, preferably when we’re making that offer, your house is already under contract to sell, but sometimes it’s not even on the market yet. So we have in the contract in that addendum, we put together, you know, let’s say your house isn’t even on the market yet. And we’re putting an offer in, on a new house that needs to be contingent on the sale. Right? So what we do in that addendum is we put down how many days from accepted contract. We have to get that home on the market and we usually are ready to go. We just don’t want it on the market until we know you found a house, right. Because we, right now, your house is probably in a better price range. If you’re moving up to luxury or even if you’re going same price point, right. Different, different home. It’s, it’s important to, you know, know the details of how we do it so that it works for you and make sense for you because that’s just one little nuance of how do you sell them.
So a couple of things I want to address is one of the, the services we offer here at Venturi Realty is the guaranteed sale. I know we’ve been accused of like this whole thing. Like we’re, we’re putting something out there. Oh no, they can’t do that. No, this is exactly what the guaranteed sale is for exactly. So
We, we will, I mean, we all meet, we, we can just make an offer on a house. Somebody wants to sell, but it’s perfect because we can go and meet with you ahead of time and say, okay, we believe your house will sell for this price. We will offer you X and you give us 59 days or whatever you want to get your home sold.
That’s good. It used to be 59 days, but in today’s market, you know, with median days on market at five courses, that’s
That was selling like that. So we guarantee that if the house doesn’t sell well, you can move forward, get another home under contract. We work, get your home sold. But if it doesn’t sell while we’re waiting for your other home to close, we guarantee that
It’s a backup offer. It’s a backup option. If, if for whatever reason, it just doesn’t sell or, you know, it’s a backstop
And most people want to net the most and they want the highest and best. Our price is going to be a little bit below that because traditionally we just put it on the market and sell it. So we incur all the closing costs and the holding fees and things. But it’s not a one of those telephones,
Paul I’ll buy your house at 30% below market. Now that’s not right.
Four 50. I know people who’ve called and it’s like half price. They want to buy your house. So, no, it’s not like that. Our goal though, is to help you get into a new home as stress-free as possible.
You’ve said new home a couple of times, but I want to address, you know, you’re saying just a different home, but let’s talk about new construction because th the, this is a really common in the new construction, because especially now, unless the home is built and available, that w first off, there’s not a lot of those available and Albuquerque right now in con, but construction times are what? Six, seven, eight months right now, nine months I’ve heard.
Right. For pull DDR Horton. Abrazo Twilight. Westway
Yup. All those great [inaudible], it’s a different animal. Yeah.
So in Tigo, let’s just tell the story. We, one of them, and we bought a couple houses this year, right. Coming up on it. And one intern,
I, I want you to tell that story. I just want to address, so that, that is, you know, an ideal situation for somebody, because now you have the time you have the time, you know, you know, you can gauge the market, talk to us about, you know, how long we think it’s going to sell what it’s going to sell for. So you can gauge the market and decide when to put it on the market before your, your home is ready,
That when you’re moving into
The other option that you want to talk about, and I’ll let you tell that story, because it’s a great story.
We had a situation earlier this year, the client worked with us to buy a new construction home, picked out a lot, picked out a floor plan. We’ve got to go to the design center and pick out the color of the cabinets and the counters and the flooring and everything so fun. But she wanted to know very solidly that our house was going to be sold because she needed to sell to buy and just wanted that peace of mind. So she asked us just to go ahead and buy it and rent it back to her. So that’s what we did. So we bought her house and she continued to live there for eight months while her house was being built. And when her house was done, she, she gave us 30 days notice that my house was going to be done, which we knew because we were working with her. And she was so happy about that situation. It just worked so well. It was a, win-win a win-win.
Yeah. Yeah. So
Plus we gave her a little reduced rent while there is that there is that too,
More than, more than a little anyway. Well, it was a little so if you know, you’re thinking about selling and you’re in, you’re kind of on the fence. She’s like, well, where do I go? How do I find a home? And you want to know about this, this whole idea of contingent offers and selling and buying at the same time, just reach out to us. Venturi Realty, group of Keller Williams Realty
Four, four, eight, 88, 88, nice and simple, four, four, eight 88, 88. We should probably write a jingle about that. Tiko.
We can do that. Maybe ed Eddie could sing it for us. That would be, yeah, well, he does have that opera voice. He could do it. He’s awesome. So let’s change the subject. I want to talk about 20, 21 lots of predictions out there in, in the real estate world that I just wanted to share from the experts. And I’m going to say air quote experts, because, you know, we’ve w I think some of us have lost a little faith in experts this year in 2020, but
Through just some of the topics of what the forecasters, there’s just some big topics out there. Right. So one is interest rates. Two is foreclosures. Yep. Three is home prices. Yep. Four is challenges.
I’m just going to say yes to everything you say,
Like inventory levels. That’s it. Okay.
That’s my advice for, for a happy marriage. Just kidding. Okay. So first and foremost, let’s talk about mortgage interest rates, Tracy, and what the experts are saying. So we, I, I think in everybody knows mortgage interest rates right now, December, 2020 are at just these historically low levels last week we were joking about well, I had another headline that says all time, low mortgage rates, you know, it’s like,
We, we don’t think we’re going to be saying that ever again. And last week we said it again, rates are still under 3% right now for most borrowers with decent credit, right?
Yep. Absolutely. And in one, just a side note on that is there, believe it or not, there are still a bunch of people out there that could benefit from refinancing that have not refinanced. That’s a lot of, of just lost money. Really.
You’re sitting at an interest rate of like four or above right now, and you’re not planning to sell in the next two years,
Even three seven, five, 3.8, seven five. Maybe, maybe you gotta run the numbers. You gotta, you gotta do the, you gotta do the math and make sure
Do the math is scary for a lot of us to go
Math. Math is great spreadsheets. They’re my favorite. Okay. So projections, let me just go through these by the end of 2021, I’ll just give you these, this is it. So Freddie Mac, obviously a big organization, they’re saying 3% Fannie Mae. The other one, they’re saying 2.8, a mortgage bankers association, they’re saying 3.3, which is interesting national association of realtors. They’re saying three points to the takeaway is they’re not going to fight nobody, nobody. I mean, nobody is projecting and I’m talking the, the, the big economist Goldman Sachs that do all their projection as well. Nobody is predicting interest rates to go up substantially. What about home prices, home prices. Let’s talk about that. And that’s the big, that’s the big one, everybody wanders. And, and, you know, there’s this whole thing about, you know, all these forbearance, all these people that are delinquent on their mortgage, or we’re going to have this flood of homes that drive home prices down.
Well, this is what the experts are saying. Zelman and associates Ivy’s element in that group. They’re, they’re one of the big I don’t know what you’d call them real estate, real estate consulting firms. Yeah. That’s kind of wonky stuff, but yeah, Zelman and associates they’re saying over the next 12 months, remember to silence your phone before going on the radio is they’re saying 5.9% home price, you know, over the next 12 months appreciation realtor.com they’re saying 5.7 national association realtor, a little more conservative, 4.5%, Freddie Mac, 2.3% Fannie Mae 2.1 mortgage bankers association. Interesting. They’re saying 2% and they were a little bit they were kind of an outlier. Yeah. They were kind of an outlier on the interest rate as well. That, and then core logic, which is, again, one of those big data analytics companies, they they’re saying 1.9, they’re the lowest.
And this is across the whole country though. This is not Albuquerque.
No, this is nationally. And in the localized stuff, I think it’s going to be higher.
I was going to say, okay, let’s talk about what we think for us here in New Mexico. I believe, I believe it’ll be higher. We got to save this recording so we can go back to the highest of all those forecasters was 5.9. I would say, we’re going to be above that. I agree. I agree. And we’ve talked about on the show many times, why, I mean, in a nutshell, there is not enough homes on the market. There are not enough homes on the market and interest rates are low and the next topic, foreclosures and forbearance. Wow. So
If you see a headline that talks about, you know, delinquencies and foreclosures and forbearance, remember that there are so many layers to that onion, that whatever you’re reading, probably isn’t telling you the entire story on that in, and I don’t, you know, it’s one of those topics that you just don’t even want to get into. Cause there’s so many levels to it. I’ll just give some, some, some kind of some high level stuff on that, Tracy, which is that the, all the experts, again, all the experts, nobody is saying that we’re going to have a foreclosure crisis or a flood of foreclosures that drive down home prices in 2021. Nobody is saying that, that that’s kind of the headline. And these are, these are the economists. These are not political people. They’re just economist. They’re just looking at the data. Right? And these, these are also people that, that did get it right back in 2006, seven, when, you know, they were projected, predicting it, you know, we’re going to have, we got up, we got a problem coming. Right. Which, which we ended up with
Didn’t believe. Yeah. Anyway, different times
Let’s, let’s not go there. Just a couple high level reasons. Why is home equity embedded home equity is at just historic all time highs, which means if people are forced to sell there, they’re not necessarily going to be underwater, meaning they’re going to just sell. They’re not going to just give it back to the bank. And that’s what happened in 2008, nine, 10 is so many people were upside down on their mortgages that they couldn’t afford to sell. So they just handed back the keys and said, I’m done.
So that was so smart. You, you embedded home equity, how was like sitting here going, wow, you are very smart. That sounded so good. So, so, you know, the analogy, you know, you buy a new car and a few years later you’re still paying on it and you go and you want to sell it. Sometimes what you owe on it is higher than what you owe. Right? Yeah. That’s kind of the situation that we were in back in 2008, 2009, 2010, people didn’t have, you know, money equity in their home. Right. They couldn’t sell it, couldn’t sell it and get a price that would pay off the underlying loan. Now people have a lot of equity and they can sell and walk away with money in their pocket.
I was listening to Lawrence Hune, who’s the chief economist at the national association of realtors. And they are, yeah, he’s,
He’s like spreadsheets. And he’s like,
He’s like one of my, you know, God idols. But he, you know, he made a, a good point or this is his quote. Actually it says any foreclosure increases will likely be quickly absorbed by the market. We will, we, excuse me, it will not lead to any price declines. So even if we have some foreclosures where people, you know, walk away from their home, we are at such a critical, low number of homes on the market that it would take.
It would take a huge change,
Huge change in demand, which could probably demand would only change if interest rates spike up a lot. Which again, we just talked about that, that doesn’t look likely. So any, any foreclosure activity we see is most likely just going to be absorbed by the market. It’s not going to, it’s not going to lead to lower prices. And that’s what everybody is predicting. Right.
Had home buyers ask us, I’m worried, should I be worried about buying? And all of a sudden there’s going to be foreclosures. And the value of my house is down. We’re not the foreclosure piece is not something that we feel like is going to affect the value.
No, and I’ve talked to a lot of people and, you know, I know a lot of invest real estate investors, Tracy, and I, you know, we do real estate and investing and I, and I keep hearing people saying stuff like, well, I’m just waiting for the deals. And I, my answer to them is, well, you’re going to be waiting because it doesn’t look like they’re coming anytime soon. And just on timing on that right now, we have this, you know, forbearance thing. And just let me highlight one thing how the forbearance is so different. We didn’t have this back then, right? We didn’t have it back in 20 2008. You know, the government is jumped in big time and, you know, we can debate Eddie if that’s good or bad, but the government has jumped in big time to help homeowners. And it looks like that whole forbearance thing maybe even pushed through 20, 21. So,
Well, I think people need all sorts of help and whatever they can get themselves on. And if it gives them an advantage they can see to it personally, if that’s something that they’d want to do. So if it’s just another option, it’s another opportunity for them to look at it a different way. I mean, at this point when you’ve got the set up where, you know, private businesses and everybody can’t even, you know, let’s just say, you know, earn a living is necessary. It’s almost impossible to right now, underwrite somebody who’s self-employed, you have to have a state, a federal worker or somebody who’s in a COVID essential business. I mean, that literally cuts off 70% of the market. I’m glad that the luxury market is still doing well. Retirees are still getting it. We’ve got amazing rates and all that kind of stuff, but, you know, if that’s something else that people can do to stay in their homes, I think it’s great.
At this point, you know, we’ve been sort of put into a situation where beggars can’t be choosers necessarily. And if that’s what you have to do to stay in your home, because, you know, that’s the first order, that’s what you gotta do. And I’m just, I’m just glad that it’s there. There’s almost no value judgment anymore on any of this stuff. You know, if you something you have to do well, here’s an opportunity. This is what we’re going to do to get through it. And I don’t know that there’s any judgment at all at this point, you know, people do what they’ve got to do.
It’s a great way to put it at ease. And I think you’re right. And I think, you know, obviously you do the politics. We don’t do politics here in this show, but, but I, you know, it’s, it’s, you just gotta do what you gotta do. And,
And a lot of people are in a position that it’s through no fault of their own data. They just became unemployed out of the blue, you know? Yeah,
Yeah, exactly. Yeah. We all can. It’s tough, but there you go. So we’re all in this together, so to speak, but we’re all in this separately and nobody can really judge upon everybody else. And I’m just glad there’s options and or arrows in the quiver. So to speak that are able to go ahead and fire away some problems. He got Tracy, thank you so much for being here. Four, four, eight 88, 88 that’s four, four, eight 88, 88, or welcome home abq.com. That’s welcome on maybe q.com. They will help you folks make no mistake about it. They are the best for a reason. They’ve got a team of, I don’t know, 20 plus whatever.