Tego Venturi: As you know, I’ve got subscriptions to a couple of different software programs to, to, to that. I can get some data. One of the things I get, which, which I really like, and we’ll talk about here is that the actual data on the homes currently on the market, not what happened last month, not what happened, you know, in the past, which obviously is important. But I want to know if, if there’s any trends changing, are we seeing prices go down? Are we seeing a build in inventory? Are we seeing a lot of price reductions? Because all those things foretell the future for, for the real estate market
Tracy Venturi: Real times. Great. And you know, I’m sure you’re going to get into this, but what we know is this is the time of year where we do see home prices on average, come down a little bit every month until about March, right? So, and it hasn’t happened yet. We’re actually behind normal cycle.
Tego Venturi: We are behind normal cycles. Normally coming into late summer, we’re going to see homes, reduce our price. They went on the market, they might’ve pushed it a little bit for, for the price, both the realtor and the homeowner, you know, chose a price that just is maybe a little bit ahead of the market. And then we’ll see some reductions. We have seen some reductions this year, not as much as we have in previous years, but the reality is there’s still about 40% of the homes that are on the market have had a price reduction.
Tracy Venturi: That’s a huge number. It is, but
Tego Venturi: That’s actually lower than, than normally this time of year, it’s going to be around 50%.
Tracy Venturi: So of all the news we hear and what we talk about every week, we hear that homes are selling very quickly if they’re priced right for the condition and location. Right? So to know that 40% of the homes coming on the market are having price reductions would say that those were not priced for the market condition location.
Tego Venturi: Exactly well, and, and what’s happened is we’ve had such a run-up in home prices. So let me, let me go through some of the data here, Tracy. So we can actually talk about this. So we’ve seen prices over the last year, go up somewhere around 8%, eight and a half percent overall. So that’s a year over year rolling 12 month through November. There’s certain segments that have gone up more. There’s certain segments that are, have not gone up that much, but pretty much across the board. And when I talk about segments, I’m talking about different price ranges. We’ve seen more increase obviously in the lower price homes and, and less increase in the, the higher priced homes. But 8% across the board, 8.7, something like that, the, the, the one area of the market, Tracy. And I know you, you know, this is an important market to you. It’s important market to everybody because it really tells a, you know, I think kind of the overall strength of the economy, maybe, maybe not so much, but it’s the luxury market, right? I don’t know. W what do you think, do you think that’s really something that if the luxury market is strong, does that mean that it’s just the rich people that are doing well or does it?
Tracy Venturi: So what we do know is the ten-year trend for homes in our market about 500,000 many more have sold this year than we normally see sell in a year.
Tego Venturi: If you look at the November through November, this is again, a rolling 12 months. So it’s last December through this November, the number of, of homes that have sold over $500,000, which we consider our luxury market here in Albuquerque is almost a thousand homes. That’s up 38% versus 2019. Yep.
Tracy Venturi: It’s big numbers. That’s 300 more homes selling than last year above 500,000,
Tego Venturi: Get the number of homes pending while here. Let’s actually, let’s just talk about the annualized same thing where the pending sales up 40% that, that interesting one to me, Tracy, let me go back here and find it. It was November November pending sales. This is this November, just that we passed. I just saw the number. I know, I know it’s this November versus last November, so same month, same month, but a year ago, this year, we’re up 86% and the number of homes going pending over 500,000. But if you look at homes over 1.3 million, which is let’s call that our, our ultra luxury for the Albuquerque market, which is kind of funny, cause that’s a starter home in some places Silicon Valley, but a 1.3, our ultra luxury, we’ve had 150% increase in the number of those homes that, that went pending in November versus last year
Tracy Venturi: Keen about 10 houses versus four houses last year. So 10 houses over 1.3 million went pending in November.
Tego Venturi: I can remember back, let’s see, let’s say 2008, nine, you know, when the market was, it was rough.
Tracy Venturi: I remember like,
Tego Venturi: Like in the entire year it was like over a million, it was like 20 houses or something,
Tracy Venturi: Right? Yeah. So to give numbers to that. So over a million, 13 houses went pending in November last November,
Tego Venturi: 116% increase over last November,
Tracy Venturi: Which was 613. The 1.3 and above is 10 with four last year. Yep. But the over 500,000, 112 went pending in November. So yeah. Big, big increase.
Tego Venturi: The thing that’s interesting. And just to wrap up this conversation about the luxury market, anybody that’s doing business in the real estate market here in Albuquerque mean there’s about 4,000 realtors. And I can’t say that, you know, there’s, there’s really a handful that really know that luxury market like we do. They know this, that the luxury market has been on fire this year. We know this. And if, if we look at the month’s supply of inventory, which is the gauge of, you know, supply versus demand homes over 1 million is at seven months supply, which is the lowest I can ever remember seeing. And, and they say a balance, you know, Mark. So technically that means it’s still a buyer’s market right. In that price range.
Tracy Venturi: And so let’s talk about that. You know, one of the reasons perhaps we’re seeing so many in that over 500 is because the cost of money, you know, think about the opportunity right now to get into your dream home. You know, the houses are on the market. We have seven months supply over 500,000 and we have interest rates that are crazy low even jumbo loans where you’re borrowing most of the money for a house over 500,000. Those rates are exceptionally low.
Tego Venturi: Yeah. The, the jumbo loans are available. There, there was a point there back in April where there was, it was a little bit sketchy, April may where, you know, some of the banks had pulled back on those jumbo loans, right. Which is, you know, what, five, 10 and above, by the way that number is going up, right.
Tracy Venturi: It’s going and FHA limits are going up.
Tego Venturi: But yeah, so we digress now, just one last thing to just put a bow on the whole market stat. I mean, the real story of the real estate market in Albuquerque right now, December, you know, 2020 is super low supply of homes on the market. You know, right now it’s, it’s, it’s historic level. I mean, you could go back 20 years and, and still not see this few homes on the market at any given
Tracy Venturi: Time. So this century, the
Tego Venturi: Century, this, this millennia, this this anyway. Yeah. I mean, it, it’s, it’s pretty interesting.