Development Wise: Where Albuquerque is from a growth stand point

Development Wise: Where Albuquerque is from a growth stand point

Transcript Snippet: “

Tego:

I think this is a great segue into this whole idea of, you know, where Albuquerque is from a growth standpoint. UI, I participated in, well, not really participated. I was a speaker at this, this particular event, but one of the presenters was,uTodd Clark, Todd Clark, who is New Mexico apartment advisors and Eddie. And I talked about this a little bit last week, but I just wanted to,ubring some something up. So he, he, you know, is very in tune to what is going on economically economic development wise in,uAlbuquerque area. And he projects that there are the short of it is about 99,000 more people coming to Albuquerque and the, the very near future. And that’s based on all these,uprojects that are in the pipeline. You know, the, the, the Netflix projects, obviously Facebook, that’s mostly construction jobs, but that’s gonna go on for a while, all Amazon projects going on. And then there’s a bunch of smaller ones, too. Those are well, some of the big one ones. Those are the big ones. Yeah. Uand of course, Intel,

Tracy:

Intel, we’ve got the the base still adding. Right. Right. San labs are still adding quite a few people, but 99 you said

Speaker 1:

Thousand 90, 9,000. Wow.

Tracy:

That must be over more than,

Speaker 1:

And, and what that is. That’s not, it’s not just those jobs. So what are you saying is, okay, you’ve got about 8,000 to 9,000. Let’s see. And then you have to put a multiplier on

Tracy:

That eight to 9,000 jobs,

Speaker 1:

Correct.

Tracy:

That we can just right now pinpoint that are coming. Correct.

Speaker 1:

But then you have to put the multiplier on it to service those people, as well as family members that are coming with him. So that’s where he comes up with this, this 99,000. And that’s okay. So let’s say even if he’s off by 50%, right. It’s still 50,000 people,

Tracy:

Right. I was gonna say he didn’t get it to a hundred thousand. It was 99.

Speaker 1:

Hey, you know, he’s pretty accurate. 99,000

Tracy:

93, 65.

Speaker 1:

Yeah. That’s what he came up anyway. And Todd, if you’re listening, thank you for all the work you do in a market. And, and this was in the context of, we have a housing shortage and that’s, that’s kind of the, the, the, I dunno, negative is not the right word. It’s just, it just is what it is. We have a housing shortage in Albuquerque area, and it’s not just Albuquerque, it’s all over the country

Tracy:

And it’s not going away anytime soon. Correct. So when, when we see those headlines about home prices are gonna drop, or is there gonna be a huge decrease in home, home values and things like that, you have to read deeper and go, wait, if Albuquerque’s gonna be getting almost a hundred thousand extra people in the next, whatever timeframe house prices going down does not seem likely.

Speaker 1:

Yeah. And he, you know, so Todd works in, again, this is Todd Clark with New Mexico apartment advisors. I’m, I’m quoting here. You know, he works in that world, the, the, the multi-family apartment buildings, duplexes, that type of stuff. Right. And, you know, he’s looking at rent and what’s going on there, rents have gone up a lot. Mm-Hmm <affirmative> lately just like home pricess apartment,

Tracy:

Single family homes for rent. Right.

Speaker 1:

Right. Exactly. And so we have a shortage of those type of buildings in Albuquerque. And of course we have a shortage of single family, which is, you know, our specialty and, and my specialty, when I, when I talk about market data is single family homes. And, and one thing that’s interesting, Tracy, you know, just before we got on the radio here, we were looking at the housing permits for the Albuquerque area, going all the way back to 1988. And it’s the, the thing that’s interesting through the nineties really all the way up until let’s say 2001 in the Albuquerque area, we were building somewhere four, 5,000 homes a year.

Tracy:

So building permits were four to 5,000 a year

Speaker 1:

For single family homes,

Tracy:

Single fam until 2001. And then what

Speaker 1:

Happened? Well, we kind of know what happened. We had a, we had a housing, boom. We know about that. And I’m gonna call that a, a credit housing, boom, meaning there were a lot of homes built and sold because credit was so easy, it was easy to get loans. And we know what happened there. I don’t wanna, so it

Tracy:

Jumped up to go from about 5,000 permits a year to 7,000 permits a year for a couple years, seven, 2002 to 2007, right. Six,

Speaker 1:

Six. And then what happened is in starting in 2009, 1500 permits, 1300 permits, you know, so we were in this 1500 homes a year from 2009, pretty much all the way through until, you know, maybe 2019, you know, we were up, we bumped up to 2020 20. And, and you think about that, that’s a third of the nineties,

Tracy:

Right? Right. We were in the, the 2000, no 5,000, right, right. 5,000 a month, pre housings, boom. Right.

Speaker 1:

And then we went down to

Tracy:

50 and then we went down to 1500 for 10, 15 years. Yeah.

Speaker 1:

And so the, the short of this discussion is we can’t build our way out of this fast enough. There there’s, there is a deficit of the number of single family homes available to purchase in the Albuquerque area. The builders are building as faster. They can. Right now this year they’ve pulled about 2000 or, you know, annualized somewhere around 2,500 to 3000 permits for the Albuquerque area. We could easily be double with that.