Predictions for 2022: Projected home prices in Albuquerque, NM.
(Transcript Snippet): “Tego: To predictions for 2022 realtor.com came out with their predictions and, you know, there there’s a lot of stuff out there. You know, most of the people in the real estate world are predicting 20, 22 to be a very strong year for real estate, both sales and potential price appreciation. Although most people are predicting at home prices, won’t climb as fast as 2021. And, you know, the, the overall appreciation for the year it’s interesting cuz realtor.com breaks it down by market and they have the Albuquerque Metro area with an increase in home sales of about 4%. So that’s, you know, just the number of sales number of sales units, right? And, and to put that in perspective this year, we’re gonna end up about 5% increase versus 2020, which was a record year as well. So, you know, the number of home selling continue is to increase, which is, and, and that’s what they’re projecting for next year, which is interesting when you think about the, the fact that we ha we’re at all time, low number of homes on the market, right.
Tracy:
So what is realtor.com predicting for the price growth in 2022?
Tego:
Yeah, they’re calling 4.4% growth in, in prices in Albuquerque Metro for 2020, I’m gonna call that low.
Tracy:
So if somebody were looking to buy a home the sooner in 2022, the better, right? Because we expect house prices, realtor.com says 4.4% and you’re calling that a low number.
Tego:
Yeah, I mean, I, you know, just when we look at the supply versus demand, right. I put some stuff out on my Facebook page the other day, and a lot of people were asking me questions about it and, and it was projections, right? It was national projections from a lot of the different experts. And you know, the question is, you know, okay, well, what’s gonna change this, this low supply, high demand, you know, world that we’re living in, in, in residential real estate right now. And there’s just nothing on the horizon that, that makes you go, okay, that’s gonna change, you know, interest rates is the one that a lot of people point to, okay. If interest rates go up to 4%, well, maybe that’ll slow down ’em with the demand. However you put that in perspective, if we go up to 4% and Chris and I talked about this last week the, the lender, Chris, and if we go back up to 4% by the end of 20, 22, well, we’re just back to 2019. Right, right. You know, it, it looks high compared to the, the 3% mortgage rates we’ve been in for the last year or so. Anyway, so Tega, I don’t, I just don’t see anything that that’s gonna make the housing market air quote, slow down right now.
Tracy:
I, I agree. It’s interesting because when I look on this list from realtor.com of 2022, I see Detroit, which you know, is close to where you grew up. Yeah. They, they say that they’re gonna sell 6% more homes
Tego:
Next, speaking of which I’m, I’m looking forward to new year’s Eve got a, a, got a big big Michigan big football game that I’m you know, I’m an Ann Arbor guy I grew up in aro was a, you know, grew up watching the Wolverines
Tracy:
Anyway, grew up, sneaking into the Wolverine
Tego:
Stadium, grew up sneaking into the big house. Yep. Yep. As a kid
Tracy:
And they’re expecting price appreciation in Detroit area up 5.6%, which is interesting. I think they probably were down a lot more
Tego:
Well, and I, I think when you lot of room to go yeah, exactly. Room to run, you know, and I’ve been saying that for, for the Albuquerque area, we had a lot of room to run, but then you look at Aust markets like Austin, where, you know, their prices have gone up, you know, 20 plus percent in a year. And they were already a, you know, a little price market, you know? Well, Austin’s
Tracy:
Expected they to have 4.7% more sales next year than this year and price. Appreciation’s still going up 3%.
Tego:
Yeah. That’s pretty Mo I mean, it’d be, I bet they’d be thrilled to see 3% price appreciation. Honestly, I would be in low. Yeah, yeah. Not higher. Yeah, exactly. You know, kind of staying up with inflation cuz right now home prices are, you know, of course they’re growing faster than well, they got Tesla wages and well, yeah. I mean Austins all kinds of stuff going on. I saw
Tracy:
Detroit because I was looking at Denver, which bring it back home. Right. So I was considering what’s Denver looking like, because we know we’ve helped a lot of people that have moved to Denver mm-hmm <affirmative> or from that area that we’ve helped them. And, and Denver is still expected to have huge growth next year, like 6%. And they’re still expecting prices to go up 5%. So pretty significant when you look at it Phoenix, we know what it’s done, boy, and they’re expecting 7.5% more sales next year than this
Tego:
Year. How about appreciation? <Affirmative>
Tracy:
6.8%. Wow. So almost 7%. They’re expecting prices to continue to rise. I guess we sold the kids kitty house that they went to college and stayed in a little too soon.
Tego:
Well, the, you know, it’s, it’s interesting. There’s a I, I’m looking through this list of all these major metros. I think it’s the top hundred Metro us cuz you know, Albuquerque, we don’t, we don’t fall into the top 50. We’re always we’re somewhere in that top 60 I think anyway there’s not one market that they’re calling as a negative for 20, 22 Honolulu as far as prices. Yeah. As far as prices Honolulu is the only one that’s basically they’re, they’re calling it a, a BA you know, equal, less sales, less
Tracy:
Sales, I mean equal sales, not yeah. Interesting. So
Tego:
Yeah, so it, it just in, you know, and, and of course, as, as we’ve learned in the last couple years, you just kind of never know where things are gonna go and some of these macro things that that could happen. But right now we just have a lot of people that need housing and we have a shortage of, of housing and that’s both homes for sale as well as rental units. And let me just make one more comment. Now, go ahead. Go ahead. Do you have a point to make,
Tracy:
I wanna jump back to me saying that we sold the house in Tempe too soon, because really I don’t believe that. Oh, okay. I wanna clear that up. Yeah. Yeah. So I said that just flippantly, right? Oh, you know, the prices are still going up. We sold that house too soon, but really it was just the right time for us because all of the kids that were our kids, friends that were renting from us right. Were moving on, on, we would’ve had to Rere the house to people we didn’t know. And you know, it was the right time for us, even though prices might go up, we took that money and we’ve invested it elsewhere. Yeah.
Tego:
That, that’s a real, that that can go down a rabbit hole of conversation about real estate investing. And you know, when you’re evaluating your, your, your properties that you own as a investor in real estate, you know, you always wanna see, okay, what’s my return on investment today? Not what it was five years ago when I bought the property. Right. So you’re constantly reevaluating that. And in this case, we had a property that appreciated quite a bit and the amount of rent we could have taken for, you know, what that home was worth. The, the actual, the numbers weren’t that great in the long run. It
Tracy:
Didn’t make sense anymore for the value of the
Tego:
House. It made more sense to take that money out, take it and rein
Tracy:
It elsewhere. Exactly. Right. Yeah. So that’s so I wanted to clarify
Tego:
That. No, no, absolutely.
Speaker 3:
Yeah.