Home Price Projections : How Does Albuquerque Compare to Other Markets?
(Transcript Snippet): “Tego:
So projections, home price, projections. Let’s talk about that, cuz I think that’s, everybody’s trying to speculate. I think, I think people are, I, I maybe it’s just this stuff I see. But people seem to be addicted to claiming that there’s a housing bubble going on and I see a lot of it and it’s interesting. Some of these people that put stuff out there, how much attention they get,
Tracy:
So many stories about it, Tego, they, and, and they’re all sort of saying the same thing, even though it’s coming from different sources, but go ahead.
Tego:
Well I’m talking about the people claiming the bubble, right? They’re trying to compare to what’s going on today versus what happened in 2000 8, 9, 10.
Tracy:
I was thinking we were talking about price appreciation or decreases in.
Tego:
Well, I was talking about the bubble at this moment. Yeah. My, my point is there’s a lot of people talking about a bubble. Yeah. Us, because the only, the only thing they’re using to, to back that up is that home prices have gone up so much over the last couple, three years that, that, oh, it just has to crash. Well that the, the, the thing is, you know, you, you can’t take supply and demand out of the equation, right? You have to ignore supply and demand to, to believe that now a couple different things, core logic, one of the big real estate data analyst companies out there you’ll if you Google ’em, you’ll see, they do a ton of stuff. They did some stuff and they looked at different metros or different metropolitan statistical areas MSA around the country. And they only came up with a handful of markets that they consider elevated in having a price decline over the next year.
Tego:
Tho those were, you know, nothing in our part of the world. The, the, the places that they sought were, let me see, where would they come up with? Gosh, like Kalamazoo Salem, Oregon Honolulu, Mount Vernon, Washington. I’m not sure why Kalamazoo, Michigan. I’m not sure why Hartford, Connecticut. So, so, you know, they’re seeing some places where there is a potential for home prices to go down this year. Very few markets a few markets that they consider like high chance of depreciating, very few. And for the most part, most markets around the country, they’re projecting that the chance of a home price decline is very low, zero to 10% chance in here in the Albuquerque area. That’s, that’s where we fall the whole Southwest. They just, they just don’t see it in, in our markets.
Tego:
So, you know, it’s, it’s interesting. They also run some data that, that try to speculate, okay, what markets are overvalued, what markets are undervalued. And right now there’s very few markets that are considered undervalued around the country. So it, it was an interesting one. And then I, I looked at another one. This was a company that does pretty object, and they look at a bunch of different data points. And they’re looking out to 2030 and trying to predict what markets are gonna be, you know, have the highest appreciation through 2030 and the Albuquerque market falls into the high appreciation category. According to this, if you wanna look at this data, it’s home dot LLC forward slash projections, they’re a company that does real estate investing. And so they’re, they’re helping their clients look for markets that that could have, you know, high appreciation over the next 10, 15 years.
Tracy:
You know, Austin, Texas is also there. You think about all the oh yeah. All the high tech that’s been going into Austin, it’s going to continue because they have a severe housing shortage, right?
Tego:
Austin is boom,
Tracy:
But obviously Albuquerque’s on the list. It’s you know, they’re projecting the highest appreciation through 2030.
Tego:
And one other way that, that I, I like to look at this is okay. When we look at Albuquerque, how do we compare region home prices? Regionally is what know to other markets let’s say, I don’t know, call ’em comparable markets, cuz nothing compares to Albuquerque in New Mexico. But you know, what do we see from an affordability standpoint? Right? Cause that’s really what it comes down to is how much people can afford. And if you look at us compared to a market like son or Denver, or even El Paso, believe it or not we are, we are more affordable overall when you look at all the, the, the metrics that you’re looking at, and that includes that’s, that’s the cost of home ownership affordability, you know, markets that we are, we’re not as affordable Tulsa, Oklahoma, Oklahoma city. Right. But you know, you just go down the list. We’re San Antonio, we’re more affordable. Phoenix, we’re more affordable. So we do still have that going for us, even though we’ve had this big run up in both home prices and the cost to rent. So good
Tracy:
Info,
Tego:
You know, I, I’m still confident that our, our market is gonna be steady. And you know, again, we just have so few homes on the market. Yeah.
Tracy:
So we, we are saying that still time to buy prices are still going up. Home values are still going up. Also, you know,
Tego:
Let me, let me say that at, can I, can I reframe that a little bit? You can, if, if it’s time for you to buy, don’t be afraid to buy. How about that? I think
Tracy:
That sounds good.
Tego:
Yeah. I mean, it’s, there’s, there’s so many ways you can be afraid just get on, you know, online and start searching for reasons to be afraid and you’ll find them, you know, as, as we all know, they’re, they’re everywhere. There’s all kinds of things to be afraid of. And you know, most of the media is selling fear and, and it’s no different in talking about the housing market. I see it all the time. I, and people that listen to Kiva know that already. So yeah. Not saying anything, they don’t know. We, we did. I, I, I wanna share one more thing. Just talking about the Albuquerque market. I, we started the show. I said, it looks like April is gonna see a little bit of slow down in sales. March was a little bit slow down in sales versus last year again, we’re coming off a record year in home sales and in 2021, however, home prices continue to increase even though the number of sales have declined.
Tracy:
Well, the headline will say sales decline, but the prices are still going
Tego:
Up. Correct? Right, correct. Correct. And it looks like based on, you know, what we’re seeing prices of homes coming on the market. And that’s what my, my long video I went through. If you look at what the, the prices of homes coming on the market are they’re continually continuing to go up. We’re not seeing a decline there. So, you know, if, if we felt like there was a turn coming, or if we, we suddenly saw a, a big increase in a number of price reductions for listed properties, then we say, okay, maybe been shifting. But so far we haven’t seen it.