2021 Predictions! Experts sound off about ABQ real estate in the new year


Tego Venturi: Okay, change the subject. I want to talk about 20, 21 lots of predictions out there in, in the real estate world that I just wanted to share from the experts. And I’m going to say air quote experts, because you know, we’ve w I think some of us have lost a little faith in experts this year in 2020, but

Tracy Venturi: Go through just some of the topics of what the forecasters, there’s just some big topics out there. Right? So one is interest rates. Two is foreclosures. Yep. Three is home prices. Yep. Four is challenges. I’m just

Tego Venturi: Going to say yes to everything you say,

Tracy Venturi: Like inventory levels. That’s it.

Tego Venturi: That’s, that’s my advice for, for a happy marriage. Just kidding.

Tego Venturi: Okay.

Tego Venturi: So first and foremost, let’s talk about mortgage interest rates, Tracy, and what the experts are saying. So we, I think in everybody knows mortgage interest rates right now, December, 2020 are at just these historically low levels last week we were joking about well, I, another headline that says all time, low mortgage rates, you know, it’s like,

Tracy Venturi: We, we don’t think we’re going to be saying that ever again. And last week we said it again, rates are still under 3% right now for most borrowers with decent credit,

Tego Venturi: Right? Yep. Absolutely. And one just a side note on that is there, believe it or not, there are still a bunch of people out there that could benefit from refinancing that have not refinanced. That’s a lot of, of just law,

Tracy Venturi: Right? If you’re sitting at an interest rate of like four or above right now, and you’re not planning to sell in the next two years,

Tego Venturi: Three seven, five, 3.875. Maybe, maybe you gotta run the numbers. You gotta, you gotta do the, you gotta do the math and make sure it makes sense

Tracy Venturi: To do the math is scary for a lot of us to go

Tego Venturi: Math. Math is great spreadsheets. They’re my favorite. Okay. So projections, let me just go through these by the end of 2021, I’ll just give you these, this is it. So Freddie Mac, obviously a big, you know, organization, they’re saying 3% Fannie Mae, the other one, they’re saying 2.8, a mortgage bankers association, they’re saying 3.3, which is interesting national association of realtors. They’re saying three points to the takeaway is they’re not going to fight nobody, nobody. I mean, nobody is projecting and I’m talking the, the, the big economists Goldman Sachs that do all their projections as well. Nobody is predicting interest rates to go up substantially. What about home prices? Home prices. Let’s talk about that. And that’s the big, that’s big one, everybody wanders in. And, you know, there’s this whole thing about, you know, all these forbearance, all these people that are delinquent on their mortgage, or we’re going to have this flood of homes that drive home prices down.

Tego Venturi: Well, this is what the experts are saying. Zelman and associates Ivy’s element in that group. They’re, they’re one of the big I don’t know what you’d call them real estate, real estate consulting firms. Yeah. That’s kind of wonky, but yeah, Zelman and associates. They’re saying over the next 12 months, remember to silence your phone before going on the radio is they’re saying 5.9% home price, you know, over the next 12 months appreciation realtor.com they’re saying 5.7 national association realtor, a little more conservative, 4.5%, Freddie Mac 2.3% Fannie Mae 2.1 mortgage bankers association. Interesting. They’re saying 2% and they were a little bit they were kind of an outlier. Yeah. They were kind of an outlier on the interest rate as well. That, and then core logic, which is, again, one of those big data analytics companies, they they’re saying 1.9. They’re the lowest. This is across the whole country though. This is nationally not Albuquerque. No, this is nationally. And if in the localized stuff, I think it’s going to be higher locally.

Tracy Venturi: I was going to say, okay, let’s talk about what we think for us here in New Mexico.

Tego Venturi: Well, we get to do this, we got it. We got to save this retire. We got to save this recording so we can go back. And

Tracy Venturi: All those forecasters was 5.9. I would say, we’re going to be above that. I agree. I agree. And we’ve talked about on the show many times why, I mean, in a nutshell, there is not enough homes on the market. There are not enough homes on the market and interest rates are low.